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Seahawks open as underdogs for the 3rd time this season

Detroit Lions v Seattle Seahawks Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images

Believe it or not, Seattle at Detroit in Week 4 is a game that I circled as soon as the schedule came out. Not because I thought the outcome held the key to the Seahawks’ season, but because, unlike everyone else I know, I actually like the Detroit Lions.

I blame it on my having been born in Michigan and raised by a diehard Lions fan.

The Seahawks are my favorite team though - obviously; even when they’re not very good. They have been my team ever since I moved to Washington at the ripe old age of 8. The first time I cheered for the Seahawks in a game against the Lions, I thought I was going to be disowned. Fortunately, my parents valued independent thinking, and the Seahawks won that day, 28-16, so I would have had the last laugh anyway.

Given the above information, it probably won’t come as a surprise that the first Seahawks game I ever attended in person was ... wait for it ... against the Lions.

December 30th, 1990.

The game was at the Kingdome, the concrete monstrosity that I still sort of miss (but also really enjoyed watching implode).

Seattle was 8-7 and in need of a win (and some help) to get into the playoffs. They did their part by tripling up the Lions, 30-10. Alas, the other teams did not cooperate.

Fast forward to 2022.

Sort of.

The upcoming Week 4 game represents the 17th clash between the NFL teams that call Seattle and Detroit home. The Seahawks have won the last 4 games, 7 of the last 8, and 11 of the previous 16 overall.

Last season, these 2 teams met in Seattle in Week 17.

The Seahawks were 5-10 heading into the game; the Lions were 2-12-1.

The home team was favored by a touchdown and more than covered the spread, winning by 3 scores, 51-29.

A lot has changed since then.

The biggest change is that neither quarterback that started for these teams in that Week 17 game are starting for them now. Then, it was Russell Wilson vs. Tim Boyle; now, it’s Geno Smith vs. Jared Goff.

Note: I would have considered making a joke about Jared Goof, but dude is 4-3 in his last 7 starts for the Lions whereas Geno Smith is 2-4 in the 6 games he’s started for the Seahawks. Also, while 4-3 isn’t “great”, it’s a whole lot better than the 1-10-1 record that Goof sported after his first dozen starts for the Lions.

A month ago, Detroit was favored by 2; today, the line at DraftKings Sportsbook is at 6 points.

And for good reason.

Let’s start with the fact that the Lions are the home team in the 17th matchup between these two teams ... and have won four of their last five regular season games at home.

On the flip side of that equation, the Seahawks have lost four of their last six road games with their two wins coming:

  • In Week 14 last year, against the Houston Texans, who finished 4-13; and
  • Week 18 against the Arizona Cardinals, who lost 4 of their final 5 games in 2021 and haven’t won a home game since last October.

Now let’s actually fast forward to 2022 ...

Prior to their scoreless 4th quarter against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, the Detroit Lions had scored a touchdown in 11 straight quarters. That’s an NFL record to start a season.

Seattle’s offense, by comparison, has scored a touchdown in only 4 out of 12 quarters this year.

If we include the special teams touchdown against the 49ers, it’s 5 quarters out of 12.

11/12 vs. 5/12 = Advantage, Detroit.

Here’s another advantage for the Lions: Through 3 games, Detroit’s offense has averaged 409 yards per game which puts them at #3 league-wide whereas Seattle’s offense, even after totaling 420 yards against the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, ranks in the bottom third of the league with an average of 296.3 yards per game.

The good news for the Seahawks is that Detroit’s defense is one of the most porous in the league, allowing 408 yards per game. The bad news is that Seattle’s defense hasn’t been much better at 397.3.

Where Seattle does have an advantage, stats-wise, is scoring defense. Detroit has allowed an average of 31 points per game. For Seattle, Clint Hurtt’s bend-don’t-break, goal-line-standing defense has only allowed 23.3 ppg.

Did I mention that the Over/Under is 46 points?

I know which way I’m leaning.

Kickoff is scheduled for 10am on the West Coast and the game will be carried live on FOX.

Go Hawks!