The math over at FiveThirtyEight tends to be fascinating, generally. They do predictions, analysis, how many trees Bob Ross painted, etc. 538’s great; they make us smile.
The most recent 2022 Quarterback projections have come out, and the equations have led to some amusing conclusions. We’re smiling again.
There’s just so much here, including Kirk Cousins in the top-10. But for our purposes, check out one Mitchell Trubisky ranked ahead of the declining-maybe-not-declining Russell Wilson.
This “Rating” is their “QB Elo Rating,” for which they provide the math here and also more math here...kind of. it’s not in a helpful format and some of it is hidden. What they do give is fun:
Our ratings are a rolling average of recent performances and incorporate both passing and running.
But they have an actual system that gives Wilson 164 points, and Mitch Trubisky 168 points. I’d be inclined to think they are the ones with an accurate assessment of recent averages given the way Wilson finished 2021, if Trubisky and Cousins and Kyler Murray weren’t up there.
Further down the list, FiveThirtyEight would indicate that the Seattle Seahawks made the wrong decision in taking Geno Smith over Drew Lock, although it is entirely unclear if the computer watched the third preseason game against the Dallas Cowboys.