After only putting up 13 points in Week 1, the Seattle Seahawks have lit up the scoreboard with 37 points in each of their last two games.
Taking the Over at 47 points this week seems tempting, doesn’t it?
Ah, but it takes two to tango, and the last time the New York Giants played a home game (Week 1), they were embarrassed by one of their division rivals, 40-0.
The Giants rebounded in Week 2, rallying from a 20-point halftime deficit at State Farm Stadium to top the Cardinals by three, 31-28.
Then they went to San Francisco and were held to 12 points by the 49ers, who basically played with the Giants like a cat plays with a ball of yarn, en route to an 18-point win.
Knowing this, how does the Over look now?
Personally, I think the Seahawks are going to come close to the Over all by themselves; I’m just not sure I trust the Giants to take it the rest of the way.
So where does that leave us?
To borrow a line from Ted Zahn’s Week 1 post:
Sure, betting on the winner or over/under is fine and dandy, but if you want to get a little more granular…DraftKings Sportsbook has you covered!
These are the prop bets that I find interesting for this week’s game:
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Receiving Yards: Over 27.5 (-115)
It takes money to make money, right? With this prop bet, you win $100 if you’re right, but you lose $115 if you’re wrong.
Note: The Under has the same odds (-115) so you land the same place regardless of which side of this prop you pick.
Through the first three weeks, the No. 20 overall pick in this year’s draft has a combined stat line of 9 catches (on 14 targets) for 57 yards with no TDs.
Not. Super. Inspiring.
Some players are made for the biggest stages though, and my sense is that JSN is one of those players.
I also think that Pete and Shane know they need to get him more involved.
Maybe I’m wrong.
Note: If you want to go way out on a limb, DraftKings will give you +900 odds on JSN having 75+ receiving yards.
Kenneth Walker III, Rushing Yards: Over 62.5 (-110) . . . and/or Rushing + Receiving Yards: Over 77.5 (-115)
This one is interesting for a couple of reasons.
First, betting the Under on K9’s rushing yards has slightly worse odds (-120) than betting the Over does (-110).
Second, the Over/Under on K9’s receiving yards, which is a prop bet on its own, is 11.5 yards (-115 regardless of which way you bet).
Why is that interesting?
Because 62.5 (the Over/Under on K9’s rushing yards) plus 11.5 (the Over/Under on his receiving yards) equals 74, yet the Over/Under on his combined rushing + receiving yards is 3-1/2 yards higher.
I don’t think it matters though, and here’s why:
Through the first three games this year, K9 has 204 rushing yards (68 per game). Over those same three games, K9 has 73 receiving yards (24.3 per game) Add that up, and K9’s averaging 92.3 yards per game.
Granted, a lot of Walker’s yardage came in last week’s game against Carolina (97 rushing, 59 receiving).
What’s more, the Giants held Walker to 52 total yards last year (51 rushing, 1 receiving).
That said . . .
- Tony Pollard had 70 rushing yards + 12 receiving yards against the Giants Week 1.
- James Conner had 106 rushing yards against them Week 2.
- Christian McCaffrey had 85 on the ground + 34 through the air in Week 3.
Giants total points: Over 23.5 (-102) or Under 23.5 (-118)
I’ll be honest, this one is interesting because it scares the bejeebers out of me.
On the one hand, you’ve got the Giants, who have scored a total of 40 points in their first three games - an average of 13.3 per game.
On the other hand, you’ve got the Seahawks who have only held one opponent under 30 points and are allowing an average of 29.3 points per game.
Team Totals (Bands), Seahawks: 31-40 (+360)
Out of all the prop bets I looked at this week, this is the one that I would feel the most comfortable dropping a C-note on.
As noted in the intro, Seattle has scored 37 points in each of their last two games, and, even with the Week 1 debacle factored in, the Seahawks are averaging 34.7 points per game.
Enter the Giants, who are surrendering 32.7 points per game.
Seems too easy, right?
Well, here’s the catch: You lose the bet if the Seahawks score 30 points or less, and you also lose the bet if they score 41 or more.
Note: If you want some real fun, pick the 51+ band and imagine what you’d do if the Seahawks hit that mark at +6500.
Last one . . .
. . . for all the #MoreBobo fans out there :)
First touchdown scorer: Jake Bobo (+2800)
For what it’s worth, you can get the same odds picking Bobo to be the one that scores the game’s final touchdown, and the line is +550 that Seattle’s popular UDFA wideout will score a touchdown at any point in the game.