Don’t look now, but Russell Wilson is... back? The traveling Denver Broncos may be 3-5, but they are starting to look a bit more like the team they hoped they would be with Russ at the helm (emphasis on “a bit”). Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills are 5-4 and only one game behind the Miami Dolphins in the AFC East, but they have been showing some pretty big question marks lately. In spite of all this, I am not surprised that DraftKings Sportsbook is still listing the Bills as heavy favorites in this one, as they are projected to win by more than a touchdown at home. But can they really do it?
It is true that Russ has generally been much more efficient this season than he was in 2022; ESPN is currently projecting that he will finish the season with 34 touchdowns and only 9 interceptions, which would be his best statistical season since 2020. Factor in that the Broncos are actually 3-2 over their last five games after starting 0-3 and I can see some faint glimpses of hope for this team. However, these faint glimpses probably won’t be enough to make much of a difference tonight.
The Bills may be trending in the wrong direction, as they have gone 2-3 after starting 3-1, and their two most recent wins were over the underwhelming Tampa Bay Buccaneers and sinking New York Giants. In fact, their most impressive win this season is their victory over the Dolphins — which I am not trying to downplay, as that same Dolphins team crushed Denver in historic fashion. I am simply pointing out that I think that the Bills may be coasting on a bit of hype from their success in recent years. All that being said, they still look like a more complete team than the Broncos by a significant margin. While I would love to see Russell Wilson go toe-to-toe with Josh Allen and pull out a signature win, or see the somewhat resurgent Denver defense put the clamps down... but I just can’t see that happening, especially on Thursday night, in Buffalo, and with the Bills in desperate need of a win. And unfortunately for Denver fans, I am skeptical that they will even be able to keep it within reach.
The pick: Under 47.5 points, Bills win straight up and cover the spread