The Seattle Seahawks are coming off of a thrilling 29-26 win over the Washington Commanders, with Jason Myers kicking the go-ahead field as time expired. Their Week 11 opponent the Los Angeles Rams are coming off of their bye week and are a team without a win in over a month. The Rams are set to welcome starting quarterback Matthew Stafford back into the fold, which has certainly impacted this public perception and spread for this game. As things stand the Seahawks are currently just a 1-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook which is a very tempting number to bet. However, when digging a bit deeper there are some extremely intriguing player props for Sunday’s game, four of which we will dive into below.
Geno Smith over 253.5 passing yards (-115)
The Rams are overly reliant on their passing game and have had a putrid rushing attack since starter Kyren Williams went on IR. As a result this is a game that has a track meet type of feel, especially when you factor in that it will be played in a dome. As a result, Seattle should have a ton of offensive possessions and will likely need to throw the ball to win it. Enter Seattle quarterback Geno Smith. Geno has not been nearly as dominant this season and has only hit this number twice in his past five games. However, the Rams passing defense is suspect. In their last three games they allowed for Kenny Pickett to throw for 230 yards, 51.4 yards higher than his season average per game, Dak Prescott to throw for 304 (season average of 268.3) and for Jordan Love to have 228 yards on just 26 attempts. In that span they allowed Prescott, Pickett, and Love to combine for an unsightly 9.29 yards per attempt. For reference the Chargers who rank dead last in the NFL in yards allowed per attempt this season are at just 8.1. If Geno has to throw the ball 30+ times, he will likely soar past this number.
Darrell Henderson Jr. under 39.5 rushing yards (-120)
In their last game before their bye, the Rams faced a subpar Packers run defense, who have the 8th most rushing yards against this season. Against Green Bay, Henderson Jr. had 10 carries for a measly 19 yards. In the three games that Henderson Jr. has played in since Williams’ injury he has yet to have more than 3.4 yards per carry in a game. Additionally, in all three of those games, Royce Freeman has had more rushing yards and had a better yards per carry average. It is rather difficult to envision Henderson Jr. being either efficient enough or receiving enough carries to reach the 40 yard mark.
Seahawks ML (-115)
This line makes zero sense to me. I understand Seattle was beaten up in Week 1 by the Rams. But that was a Seattle team who was missing multiple key players including Devon Witherspoon and Jamal Adams. Yes the Rams have Cooper Kupp back for this one, but that is the same Kupp who has 364 receiving yards this season through five games, and has a quarterback who is less than 100% throwing him the football. Seattle is a team that has won three of its last four, compared to the Rams who have lost four of five. If you’re hesitant to bet the Seahawks outright you can do a same game parlay of Seahawks +5.5, paired with Geno Smith to throw 225 or more yards for -125.
DK Metcalf over 62.5 receiving yards
There are a few different factors that are going to lead this to being an easy cash in my opinion. As I have highlighted above multiple times, there is going to be a lot of offense between these two teams on Sunday. Traditionally, when there’s a lot of offense the two biggest beneficiaries of that are the quarterbacks and their number one receiver ,which is what Metcalf is for this Seahawks team. Second, in the 8 games that Metcalf has played in he has missed this line just three times, one of which was a game where Geno Smith attempted just 20 passes. Lastly, in the five games in which Geno Smith has thrown the ball 30 or more times, a number he should easily eclipse on Sunday, Metcalf has surpassed 62.5 each time.