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NFL Playoff Picture, Week 11: Seahawks have NFC’s biggest playoff probability swing

This isn’t a must-win against the Rams, but it feels like one.

Los Angeles Rams v Seattle Seahawks Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images

The Seattle Seahawks are sitting in a pretty good spot at 6-3 in a weak NFC playoff race, but that could all change with their upcoming schedule.

Sumer Sports does a weekly playoff probability leverage chart, which illustrates a team’s current playoff probability odds, as well as their odds range with a win compared to a loss. Last week, Seattle’s playoff odds had a wide variance based on the outcome against the Washington Commanders. Thankfully, they pulled through and are at roughly 75 percent odds to get back into the postseason. This week is pretty much the same deal: win and your odds increase significantly, lose and your odds drop a fair bit.

It’s essentially 10 percent odds on either side of their current standing, but you get the general idea. No NFC team has a bigger playoff probability swing at stake. These odds were also presumably done before the Bengals-Ravens game on Thursday, and now that Joe Burrow is done for the year, Cincy’s playoff odds are gonna tumble some more.

Obviously the Seahawks are still theoretically in good (but not great) playoff positioning with a loss against the Rams, but a win to put them at 7-3 gives them maybe just two (if not one) more wins away from being all but assured of at least a wild card berth.

Ironically, even though the Seahawks are chasing the NFC West title, a 49ers loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could turn from a positive into a negative. A Seahawks loss + Buccaneers win means Seattle would only be a game up on both the Buccaneers (who would then take the NFC South lead) and the New Orleans Saints.

This is the Seahawks’ last game against a sub-.500 opponent until Christmas Eve against the Tennessee Titans, so they better take full advantage or the ship will get a little rockier.