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NFL Thanksgiving and Black Friday picks: Can Seahawks pull off the upset vs. 49ers?

Throwdowns on Thanksgiving should keep us all entertained throughout the day.

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NFC Wild Card Playoffs - Seattle Seahawks v San Francisco 49ers Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images

Thanksgiving Football is a tradition, but it is one that the Seattle Seahawks have only rarely had an opportunity to participate in. Thankfully, this year will be different, as they are set to host the San Francisco 49ers in prime time! Also airing earlier in the day will be the Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions contest, followed by the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders in the afternoon. We also have the first ever Black Friday NFL game on Prime Video between the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets. So who gets to take home some turkey and who will go home hungry? Let’s make some picks and find out!


Thursday

Packers @ Lions — 9:30am — FOX — O/U 47.5

DraftKings Sportsbook is favoring the Lions by just over a touchdown in this one, which clearly makes sense at this point. The Packers are 4-6, and despite some encouraging play from Jordan Love, they don’t look like a team that is seriously competing for the playoffs this season. Detroit, on the other hand, is 4-1 at home and have the second best record in the NFC (and actually the NFL at large, depending on how things shake out). Jared Goff has been a different QB since departing LA, and the change of scenery has seemingly revitalized his career. Sure, rivalry games can get weird, but the Lions already beat the Packers by two scores earlier in the season. Of course, the Lions could do the Seahawks another favor and drop this one, as Seattle holds the head-to-head tie breaker (and the Packers seem unlikely to make a sharp u-turn, enough so to be a playoff threat at least). The Lions like to do favors, but the Packers hate the Seahawks quite a bit, so I am sure they will find a way to lose this one simply out of spite, even if they keep it somewhat close while doing so.

The pick: Under 47.5 points, Lions win straight up but the Packers cover.

Commanders @ Cowboys— 1:30am — CBS — O/U 48.5

Dallas has been up and down this year, and I mean that in the truest sense of the term. Their highs have been soaring and their lows have been crushing. The Commanders, on the other hand, continue to exist. DraftKings Sportsbook is taking the Cowboys in this one by a hefty 12.5 points, and that makes perfect sense even taking their instability into consideration. Plus that over/under is lofty. If the scoring gets out of hand, it will be because Dallas is doing most of the damage. This is unfortunate news for Seahawks fans, as a win by the Commanders would be positive for their playoff positioning... so expect the Cowboys to control it, but hope that I am wrong(er) than usual.

The pick: Under 48.5 points, Dallas win straight up and covers

49ers @ Seahawks — 5:20pm — NBC — O/U 43

DraftKings Sportsbook is being generous and is listing the Seahawks as 6.5-point underdogs. I would say that is more than optimistic for this team that can’t seem to stop tripping over their own feet, as if they were doing their best Puka Nacua impression. Unfortunately, this is the worst possible time to be hitting the breaks. The 49ers aren’t impenetrable, but Seattle just won’t be able to get it done... and they might not look great, either. This might be the wake up call they need, or the knockout punch that sends them to bed... either way, the Niners take the turkey.

The pick: Over 43 points, 49ers win straight up and cover

Friday

Dolphins @ Jets — 12:00pm — Amazon Prime — O/U 40

The Dolphins are making a trip up the east coast to face the Jets in what should be a pretty straightforward match. Zach Wilson hit the bench last week and will stay there, at least this week. Still, New York has a defense that can slow the game down, so I expect them to keep it from getting absolutely out of hand... but more out of hand than the 10-point spread that DraftKings Sportsbook is currently listing. That being said, the Dolphins tend to get into high scoring games, so I would be surprised to see this end over 40.

The pick: Over 40 points, Dolphins win and cover