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Seahawks playoff probability dips below 50 percent after Packers win over Lions

That was not an ideal start to Thanksgiving for the Seahawks.

Green Bay Packers v Detroit Lions Photo by Mike Mulholland/Getty Images

The stakes just got higher for the Seattle Seahawks ahead of their Thanksgiving game against the San Francisco 49ers.

Left for dead after a 2-5 start, the Green Bay Packers look like a dangerous team poised for a playoff push. Their 29-22 upset win over the Detroit Lions puts them at 5-6, just one back in the win column behind the Seahawks. Considering Green Bay has games against the Carolina Panthers, New York Giants, Chicago Bears, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers still to come, they have a considerably easier schedule than Seattle.

This, perhaps, is why the New York Times playoff machine just downgraded Seattle’s playoff probability below 50 percent. Based on 324,000 simulations, a Packers win in itself just dropped the Seahawks’ chances by 7 percent.

A Seahawks win over the 49ers would drastically improve their postseason chances, but this Packers win plus a Seahawks loss to San Francisco would dip their odds to right around 40 percent.

Last year, the Seahawks got great help when the Packers lost to the Lions in Week 18 and they were able to avoid collapsing from 6-3 into an early offseason. They might not be so fortunate this time around.

Seattle obviously controls its own fate but now a mediocre NFC crop just got a little stronger with this Packers surgence.