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Checking in on Tyler Lockett’s progress toward fifth-consecutive 1,000-yard season

Lockett has picked up the pace over the past 3 weeks, but will it be enough?

Cleveland Browns v Seattle Seahawks Photo by Jane Gershovich/Getty Images

Back on October 5th, I wrote that Lockett has had 4 straight 1,000-yard seasons, but No. 5 is looking like a longshot.

As part of that piece, I projected the following:

Given his current pace, Lockett’s final 2023 stat line projects to 72 receptions on 115 targets for 667 yards and either 8 or 9 touchdowns (depending on which way you round off 8.5).

That was after Seattle’s first four games.

Nine days later, I revisited those projections, stated that “A slow start doesn’t mean Lockett won’t finish with 1,000+ yards for the 5th consecutive season”, and determined that Lockett would need to average 64.85 yards over the final 13 games to extend his streak.

How’s he done since then?

  • Week 6: 6 receptions on 8 targets for 94 yards
  • Week 7: 4 receptions on 5 targets for 38 yards
  • Week 8: 8 receptions on 9 targets for 81 yards with a touchdown
  • Total: 18 receptions on 22 targets for 213 yards with 1 TD

The good news is that Lockett has averaged 6 receptions on 7.3 targets for 71 yards (which is more than 64.85) and 1/3rd of a TD over the last 3 games.

The bad news is that his current projection (through 7 games) still leaves him short (because math is funny that way).

How short?

About 101 yards short.

Through 7 games, Lockett has been targeted 49 times and has caught 35 of those passes for 370 yards and 3 TDs.

Impressively, his catch rate has improved by almost 8-1/2 points; from 63% through Week 4 to 71.4% through Week 7 - which leaves him only 0.4% below his career average.

Lockett needs to stack the yards though because his current 17-game projection is 85 of 119 for 899 yards and 7 TDs.

Projections notwithstanding, I’ll go out on a limb and say that I think he’ll get to the 1,000-yard mark . . . in Seattle’s 17th game . . . and probably just barely.

Go Hawks!

And Go Lockett!