FanPost

Seattle Seahawks 2023 Safety Offseason Lookahead


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2023 current contracts:

Player

Base Salary

Prorated Bonus

Roster Bonus

Guaranteed Salary

Cap
Number

Dead Money & Cap Savings

Cut (pre-June 1) Cut (post-June 1) Trade (pre-June 1) Trade (post-June 1) Restructure Extension

Regular

Per Game

Jamal Adams

$11,000,000

$7,110,000

$0

$0

$0

$18,110,000

$21,330,000

($3,220,000)

Quandre Diggs

$13,490,000

$4,100,000

$0

$510,000

$0

$18,100,000

$8,200,000

$9,900,000

Joey Blount

$870,000

$4,333

$0

$0

$0

$874,333

$8,667

$865,666

The Seahawks two largest cap hits on the team are Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs at $18.1M each, two of the top 10 paid safeties in the league. Both players are perennial pro bowlers when healthy and are a poor man’s Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor, for lack of a better analogy (no offense to Adams or Diggs). Diggs roams centerfield with sideline-to-sideline speed, has amazing anticipation of routes and the QBs throw location, and flies down to lay hat in the run game. Diggs is one of the best free safeties in the league, hands down. Diggs 2023 salary becomes fully guaranteed on February 17th, he will be a Seahawk this year. Adams has $11M in cap savings available after June 1st, but that would require a $14M dead cap hit in 2024, it’s a slim chance Adams isn’t a Seahawk in 2023. It seems inevitable that the Seahawks will try to run-back the tandem in 2023. Adams is a fantastic pass rushing box safety that does not get the credit he deserves regarding his ability to plug running lanes. He’s not sticky in man coverage, but is an extremely smart zone defender, if he had better hands then he’d have a lot of interceptions to his name. Ryan Neal is a restricted free agent and will cost a 2nd round tender at around $4M to retain, if another team signs him long-term the Seahawks would receive that team’s 2nd round pick in 2023. $4M is a steal for the level of play the Seahawks get out of Neal.

The Seahawks are pretty much set with 3 pro-bowl level starters at the safety position in 2023, although at an extremely high cost. 12’s should pray that Carroll convinces Sean Desai to stay to best take advantage of the position group.

Pro Bowl Free Agents: Jordan Poyer (31, All-Pro), Jessie Bates III (27, 2nd Team All-Pro). Notable Free Agents: CJ Gardner-Johnson (25, ’22 Int leader), Vonn Bell (28, mini Adams), Adrian Amos (30), Duron Harmon (31), Marcus Epps (27), Terrell Edmunds (25), Jimmie Ward (31), Devin McCourty (35), LaMarcus Joyner (32), Eric Rowe (30), Johnathan Abram (26), Kareem Jackson (34), Julian Love (25), Tashaun Gipson (32), Nick Scott (28), Juan Thornhill (27), Jonathan Owens (28), Taylor Rapp (25), Nasir Adderley (26), Keanu Neal (28), Jabrill Peppers (27), Ronnie Harrison (26), Daniel Sorenson (33), Damontae Kazee (30).

Safeties are an expensive position group in today’s NFL when it comes to quality players. It’s mostly a read and react position and is very difficult to play at a high level due to the speed and complexity of the NFL game. Excellent safeties are hard to find and do not hit the market often, so free agent prices are often inflated due to lack of supply. Elite safeties, such as Budda Baker, Justin Simmons, and Kevin Byard, have cap hits in the $16M-$20M range. The pro bowl level safeties like Marcus Maye, Justin Reid, and Tyrann Mathieu, have cap hits in the $8M-$13M range. Quality starters are in the $4M-$7M range. The Seahawks are not going to spend on free agents unless they release Diggs. If that happens then I’ll do a detailed study. At first glance, there aren’t any players that interest me in this free agent class, all are either too old or don’t have the size and/or athletic profile desired.

The draft class is fairly weak with just a handful players that are ready to start week 1 and no elite talent. Most of the quality players are in the slot/strong safety role. The class generally lacks high end speed a team wants playing deep in the secondary, the acceleration needed to catch NFL receivers in full stride downfield. The draft round projections below represent the earliest pick that I would draft the player if I was Pete Carroll or John Schneider (I maybe have as much football knowledge as a hair on their heads, so take it for what it is). An F means they are suited for a free safety role, an S for strong/slot safety, and F/S for both. NOTE: It is very early. The projections may change after the bowls, combine, and pro days.

DAY 1: Brian Branch (20+, S), Antonio Johnson (25+, S), Jammie Robinson (35+, F), Jordan Battle (45+ S).

DAY 2: Christopher Smith (65+, F), Rashad Torrence II (65+ S/F), Ji’Ayir Brown (65+ F/S), JL Skinner (75+, S), Ronnie Hickman (75+, S/F), Trey Dean III (90+, S), Tykee Smith (90+, F), Demarco Hellams (90+, S/F).

DAY 3: Sydney Brown (100+, S/F), Brandon Joseph (100+ S/F), Avery Young (100+, S), Jay Ward (100+ S/F), Quindell Johnson (110+, S), Cameron Mitchell (110+ F), Evan Williams (120+), Daniel Scott (120+, S), Jartavius Martin (120+, F), Isheem Young (150+, F/S), John Torchio (150+, S/F).

Brian Branch and Antonio Johnson are very similar players, Johnson is a better run defender and Branch better in pass coverage, both are very instinctive and can rush the passer from the secondary. Robinson is fun to watch, he’s quick to react, flies around full speed, and can line up all over the field. Robinson reminds me of Earl Thomas, just a hair lighter and a twitch slower. Battle looked like a bigger but slower Johnson. Torrence looks like a bigger slower Robinson, Christopher Smith a smaller Robinson. Ji’Ayir Brown and Ronnie Hickman have elite athletic traits and can play in the box or center field, but are often slow to react and late to the ball. JL Skinner is a 6’4" 220lb giant that can hit and cover, he has some Kam Chancellor in his game, he’s a really intriguing mid-rounder. The rest of the players listed have holes in their game and need development to make an impact in the NFL. Robinson and Skinner are my personal favorites and excellent fits for the free and strong safety spots, respectively. Jay Ward, Cameron Mitchell, and Quindell Johnson are late round picks that I thought looked like high ceiling guys.

The Seahawks don’t have cap space to spend in free agency on the position and the value in the early rounds of the draft just isn’t there. The Seahawks will sign a cheap veteran free agent with minimal guarantees and spend a late round pick on depth. Adams, Diggs, and Neal will be Seattle’s starting safeties in 2023 for a total of 18% of the salary cap. Expensive, but hopefully worth it.

2023 projected training camp contracts:

Player

Base Salary

Prorated Bonus

Roster Bonus

Guaranteed Salary

Cap
Number

Dead Money & Cap Savings

Cut (pre-June 1) Cut (post-June 1) Trade (pre-June 1) Trade (post-June 1) Restructure Extension

Regular

Per Game

Jamal Adams

$11,000,000

$7,110,000

$0

$0

$0

$18,110,000

$21,330,000

($3,220,000)

Quandre Diggs

$13,490,000

$4,100,000

$0

$510,000

$0

$18,100,000

$8,200,000

$9,900,000

Joey Blount

$870,000

$4,333

$0

$0

$0

$874,333

$8,667

$865,666

ERFA (Neal)

$2,278,492

$1,614,655

$0

$0

$2,164,567

$3,893,147

$3,779,222

$113,925

Day 3 Pick (Martin)

$650,000

$200,000

$0

$0

$700,000

$850,000

$850,000

($700,000)

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