NFL.com’s Chad Reuter recently proposed five first-round trades that “would make sense.”
Overall, he’s right; the five proposals seem reasonable.
Some more than others, of course.
One of the five includes our very own Seattle Seahawks - and, no, it doesn’t involve the 2023 R1 that we got from the Denver Broncos in the Russell Wilson
Here’s the trade that Mr. Reuter thinks makes sense for us:
- The Buffalo Bills get #20
- The Seahawks get #27, #91 (R3), and #137 (R5, from the Arizona Cardinals)
The logic for this trade is as follows:
Buffalo: The Bills are hungry for a Super Bowl win after losing in the Divisional Round of the playoffs the past two seasons. The Chiefs leaped ahead of them to draft cornerback Trent McDuffie at No. 21 last year, and you can bet Buffalo GM Brandon Beane doesn’t want something similar to happen again.
Seattle: Seattle GM John Schneider has a history of moving back in the first round. At No. 27, the Seahawks can still find an offensive lineman, cornerback or edge rusher who meets their needs. As for where the third- and fifth-rounders factor in, Schneider also has a history of trading mid-round selections to climb the ladder in Round 2, doing so to acquire players like defensive tackle Jarran Reed in 2016, receiver D.K. Metcalf in 2019 and edge rusher Darrell Taylor in 2020.
We can question the positions that Seattle might be targeting at the end of the first round, but the rest of that logic lines up.
Value-wise, how does this trade look?
Personally, I always start with an eye test when evaluating a trade proposal, and my eye test says this is probably a trade that both sides would make - provided, of course, that Buffalo had someone they wanted to trade up for (obviously) and Seattle thought their target(s) would still be available seven picks later.
One might argue, however, that Seattle should get Buffalo’s native R5 (#130) instead of the R5 the Bills got from the Cardinals.
What do the various Trade Value Charts say?
- The Jimmy Johnson chart scores this trade 853.5 to 850.0 with Seattle coming out a mere 3-1/2 points ahead (swapping #137 for #130 would add 4-1/2 points).
- The Rich Hill chart scores it 276 to 269, again in Seattle’s favor, this time by seven points.
- The Fitzgerald-Spielberger chart scores it 2,551 to 1,482 with Seattle coming close to doubling up from a value perspective.
The Fitzgerald-Spielberger result seems way out of whack with the other two and the other two match the eye test so . . .
Maybe the Seahawks and Bills will make some Draft Day magic on April 27th.
The other four trade proposals
Going in draft order, here are the other four trade proposals put forth by NFL.com:
The Indianapolis Colts move up one spot
The Logic: The Colts can’t afford to have another team leapfrog them to take the next-best quarterback off the board at #3.
- Indianapolis gets #3
- Arizona gets #4, #79 (R3, from Washington), #106 (R4), and Indy’s 2024 R3
FTR’s Take: While I’m not a fan of the Seahawks moving up from #5, if this is the offer that it takes for the Cardinals to move back one spot (and IF the Seahawks are leaning toward drafting a quarterback), I would be seriously tempted to top Indy’s offer.
Note: Using the Jimmy Johnson chart, #5, #52 (R2), and our 2024 R3 would basically “match” the Colts offer (Seattle’s offer would actually be 2.7 points higher) and would give the Cardinals less than a 50-point advantage value-wise.
The Minnesota Vikings climb 13 spots
The Logic: Quoting the article, “There’s never been a draft in which four quarterbacks were selected among the first nine overall picks,” and Minnesota would be climbing the board to take whichever one is sitting there at #10.
- Minnesota gets #10
- Philadelphia gets #23, #87 (R3), and Minnesota’s 2024 R1
FTR’s Take: This is comparable to what the Bears gave up to move up from #20 to #11 to select Justin Fields in the 2021 NFL Draft. That trade included an R5 (#164 overall), a future R1, and a future R4.
The Kansas City Chiefs move up for a Wide Receiver
The Logic: The defending Super Bowl champions need to hold off the Bengals and the Bills and that means adding an offensive weapon in Round 1.
- Kansas City gets #25
- The New York Giants get #31 and #95 (R3)
FTR’s Take: If I were a General Manager in the NFL, the only way I would trade with the top team in either division is if they overpaid. Using the Jimmy Johnson chart, this trade is a draw (720 to 720). Draw your own conclusion.
The Raiders move back into Round 1
The Logic: IF the Raiders don’t take a QB at #7 and IF Hendon Hooker is still on the board near the end of Day One, it would make sense for the Raiders to move up eight spots to grab Sin City’s successor to Jimmy G.
- The Raiders get #30
- The Eagles get #38, #109 (R4), and Las Vegas’ 2024 R3
FTR’s Take: Some might argue this is a slight overpay for the #30 pick but it would make sense for the Raiders if the presumed logic were fact. Plus, Vegas drafting Hooker could lead to all sorts of fun headlines.