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Jim Nagy is the Executive Director of the Senior Bowl. Prior to accepting that role, he was an NFL scout for 18 years, the final five with the Seattle Seahawks.
To say that Nagy knows how to evaluate talent and has deep connections across the league would be an understatement.
On Monday, Nagy shared some inside info about the Wide Receivers in this year’s draft via Twitter. In less than 24 hours, the tweet was viewed almost two million times.
Here’s what Nagy said:
One thing has become clear on calls around league past couple weeks: NFL isn’t nearly as high on this year’s WR class as media.
— Jim Nagy (@JimNagy_SB) April 10, 2023
Frequently seeing 4-5 wideouts in mocks. Have spoken to numerous teams that have only one first round grade at the position. That guy is JSN.
Interesting, right?
Let’s dig into Nagy’s tweet a bit . . .
One thing has become clear on calls around league past couple weeks: NFL isn’t nearly as high on this year’s WR class as media.
To understand what Nagy is saying, let’s look at a couple of media draft boards to see how many wide receivers they have ranked in the top 32 31 picks.
There are a ton of media boards to choose from, but, for this exercise, I’ve randomly chosen two of my favorites: ESPN’s Best Available list and Pro Football Network’s Industry Consensus Big Board.
Each of those boards has four wideouts listed among their top 31 prospects.
It’s the same four on each board, but where they rank among the four and where they rank among the top 31 prospects vary.
Here are those four wideouts, their position ranking, and their overall ranking on ESPN’s and PFN’s boards (in that order), listed alphabetically by their alma mater:
- Boston College’s Zay Flowers: WR2 (#21) and WR4 (#31)
- Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN): WR1 (#19) and WR3 (#18)
- TCU’s Quentin Johnston: WR3 (#26) and WR1 (#13)
- USC‘s Jordan Addison: WR4 (#27) and WR2 (#17)
As a reminder, Nagy said that the teams he spoke to that only have one WR with an R1 grade are in agreement on who that receiver is (hint: it’s JSN).
Based on our limited sample, the media boards appear to be aligned on who the top-four wideouts are, but not on who WR1 is.
How aligned will they be when the 2023 NFL Draft opens on April 27th?
We’ll know in a couple of weeks.
__________
Let’s look at this part next:
“Frequently seeing 4-5 wideouts in mocks.”
In the interest of efficiency, we’ll look at this page over at CBS Sports where six of their contributors have posted their most recent mock draft.
Each of those mock drafts have between three and six wideouts being taken off the board in the first round:
- Ryan Wilson, 3 WRS: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (11), Quentin Johnston (22), Jordan Addison (25)
- Chris Trapasso, 5 WRs: JSN (9), Johnston (12), Addison (21), Zay Flowers (29), Jalin Hyatt (31)
- Josh Edwards, 4 WRs: JSN (20), Johnston (22), Flowers (27), Hyatt (31)
- Kyle Stackpole, 4 WRs: JSN (12), Addison (20), Flowers (22), Johnston (25)
- Will Brinson, 6 WRs: Johnston (14), Flowers (15), Hyatt (21), Josh Downs (27), JSN (28), Addison (29)
- Pete Prisco, 4 WRs: Johnston (12), JSN (21), Flowers (22), Addison (23)
The obvious takeaway is that each of those mock drafts select at least three of the four wide receivers that ESPN and PFN have listed among the top-31 prospects.
No big surprise, right?
__________
Last but not least, let’s look at the final part of Nagy’s tweet:
Have spoken to numerous teams that have only one first round grade at the position. That guy is JSN.
First things first, “Yay,” for JSN, and for Ohio State with what looks to be their third R1 receiver in the last two drafts.
That said, let’s state the obvious here: There is a difference between saying that there’s only one wide receiver with a first round grade, and saying only one wide receiver will be selected in the first round.
My read is that Nagy is saying the former (only one R1 grade), but not the latter (only one R1 receiver).
This is based on what us 12s might consider to be common knowledge: John Schneider and Pete Carroll seldom have more than twenty players on their board with first round grades.
Presumably, a lot of other teams can say the same thing.
__________
Personally, I think there will be four wideouts selected in the first round, only one of them will come off the board before #20, and that one WR will be JSN (preferably after we trade up three spots to take him).
What say the 12s?
Poll Time
Poll #1: How many wide receivers will be selected in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft?
Poll
How many wide receivers will be selected in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft?
This poll is closed
-
1%
None
(8 votes) -
5%
One
(27 votes) -
33%
Two
(178 votes) -
46%
Three
(248 votes) -
12%
Four
(65 votes) -
1%
Five
(7 votes) -
0%
Six or more
(3 votes)
Poll #2: How many of those receivers will be selected before #20?
Poll
How many of those receivers will be selected before #20?
This poll is closed
-
7%
None
(31 votes) -
70%
One
(289 votes) -
20%
Two
(86 votes) -
1%
Three or more
(6 votes)
Poll #3: Which receiver do you think will come off the board first?
Poll
Which receiver do you think will come off the board first?
This poll is closed
-
1%
Jalin Hyatt (Tennessee)
(5 votes) -
81%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Ohio State)
(358 votes) -
2%
Jordan Addison (USC)
(12 votes) -
2%
Josh Downs (North Carolina)
(12 votes) -
9%
Quentin Johnston (TCU)
(40 votes) -
3%
Zay Flowers (Boston College)
(14 votes)
Poll #4: If the Seahawks were going to take one of the top four wide receivers, which one would you prefer they select?
Poll
If the Seahawks were going to take one of the top four wide receivers, which one would you prefer they select?
This poll is closed
-
58%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Ohio State)
(252 votes) -
5%
Jordan Addison (USC)
(22 votes) -
9%
Quentin Johnston (TCU)
(41 votes) -
9%
Zay Flowers (Boston College)
(43 votes) -
16%
Someone else / none of the above
(73 votes)
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