I’m not a gambler, but the part of me that geeks out on numbers loves moneyline bets and the implied probability thereof.
Thus, when I saw that DraftKings Sportsbook has odds posted for the 2023 NFL division races, I immediately used an online calculator to determine the implied probability . . .
. . . and promptly chuckled when none of the odds in any of the divisions added up to 100%.
You gotta love math!
(especially if you spent a ton of money on an Accounting degree)
The NFC West
Here is the current moneyline for each team in the only division that matters, along with the implied probability of that team winning the division title in 2023:
Here are some other fun takeaways from the current DraftKings odds and the implied probabilities thereof:
Six of the eight division winners from 2022 are currently expected to retain their title - at least based on the moneylines and implied probabilities.
The exceptions are:
- The Minnesota Vikings (+250, 28.57%), who are clearly expected to win fewer one-score games in 2023 than they did in 2022; they have the 2nd-best odds in the NFC North
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have the worst odds in the NFC South (+600, 14.29%), presumably almost entirely based on Tom Brady’s “it’s for real this time” retirement.
Surprise, surprise; six of the eight teams that finished in 2nd place last year have the 2nd-best odds of winning their division this year. Of those six, the Dallas Cowboys (+175, 36.36%) have the best odds; the Seahawks are #2.
The exceptions are the Miami Dolphins, who have the 3rd-best odds in the AFC East (+300, 25%), and the Detroit Lions, who are favored to WIN the NFC North (+140, 41.67%).
Teams with Top-10 picks in this year’s draft
- Carolina Panthers: +330 (23.26%)
- Houston Texans: +1000 (9.09%)
- Arizona Cardinals: +2000 (4.76%)
- Indianapolis Colts: +500 (16.67%)
- Seattle Seahawks: +240 (29.41%)
- Detroit Lions: +140 (41.67%)
- Las Vegas Raiders: +1000 (9.09%)
- Atlanta Falcons: +330 (23.26%) - the same as the Panthers
- Chicago Bears: +350 (22.22%)
- Philadelphia Eagles: +115 (53.49%) - a division champ with a top-10 pick just seems WRONG
Year 2 with Russell Wilson has the Broncos (+475, 17.39%) looking up at the Chargers (+300, 25%) and Chiefs (-135, 57.45%) in the AFC West.
One of the other 31 teams has the exact same odds of winning their division as the Seahawks do of winning the NFC West.
<sarcasm> You’ll never guess who it is . . . </sarcasm> (that’s an HTML joke)
Answer: The New York Jets (+240, 29.41%).