Ironically, we have more betting news this week!
While there’s nothing to report involving players making bets, the people continue to move the needle in attempt to nail down who’s coming off the board in the top 10 at this year’s NFL draft.
And the Seattle Seahawks may not fall where originally thought.
Less than 1 week until #NFLDraft2023! So here is what the market thinks who will be drafted at picks 1-10. Percentages are the vig removed probabilities according to @DKSportsbook that a player will be picked at the corresponding position. Data as of today and subject to change. pic.twitter.com/J816WKikAb— Sebastian (@mrcaseb) April 21, 2023
These numbers are the current probabilities of each player being selected at that particular spot via our friends over at DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Seahawks, in order, are predicted to take Tyree Wilson or (surprise) Will Anderson, followed closely by Anthony Richardson.
Jalen Carter is in fourth but merely half as likely as the other guys.
Again, market variables are not expert predictions, and therefore are a particularly volatile way of anticipating the moves made by your favorite team in the upcoming draft. But it can be interesting to follow what those who care to wager on this have concluded in the previous two weeks.
For example at five in particular, Anderson stock is down and Richardson stock is way, way up. Compared to a week ago:
Draft comes closer so here is what the market thinks who will be drafted at picks 1-10. Percentages are the vig removed probabilities according to @DKSportsbook that a player will be picked at the corresponding position. Data as of today and subject to change.#nflverse pic.twitter.com/v3sxz3Uhwz— Sebastian (@mrcaseb) April 13, 2023
To summarize the popular opinion over the past eight or so days:
- Bryce Young has become a near lock at No. 1 overall
- Nobody has any confidence in what the Houston Texans will do
- Jalen Carter outside top-5 became twice as likely
- Belief that Cardinals will trade out of three has fallen, though not significantly
- Besides Young, the only remotely confident pick is Devon Witherspoon to the Detroit Lions at six. Not only does nobody else possess over half of the betting shares, Witherspoon’s the only player above 38%.
In short, tons of variability in the Top-10 (2-10, apparently) of this year’s draft. Expect Mel Kiper to be surprised more than once.