FTR’s final 2023 mock draft: Seahawks flirt with perfection, make three 1st-round picks

The 2023 NFL Draft is almost here!

As you read this, John Schneider is putting the finishing touches on the Seahawks‘ draft board while Shane Waldron and Clint Hurtt make last-minute pleas to move “their” guy up a slot or three.

Pete Carroll sits nearby putting together his draft clues.

“Hey, John . . . would a picture of the 39th president in an orange jumpsuit be too obvious?”

(give it a minute . . . )

No, the Seahawks aren’t select Jalen Carter in this mock draft.

But they might on April 27.

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Methodology & Layout

Like my fourth mock draft, I made all the picks in this one.

However, unlike that one, I think I did pretty well for a certain team that I despise (Spoiler: I gave them Jahmyr Gibbs! Sigh.)

For team needs, I used a combination of PFF’s mock draft simulator, PFN’s 2023 NFL Draft Team Needs (4/17), PFF’s ‘The state of all 32 teams before the NFL Draft’, my own knowledge of (some of) the teams, and depth charts from OurLads.com.

For player rankings, I used the PFN Consensus Big Board, PFF’s mock draft simulator, Dane Brugler’s / The Athletic’s Top-100 list, and a couple of other random sources. (Flipping an actual coin is considered “random”, right?)

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The layout of this mock draft is a bit different than the previous ones.

• Round one lists each pick with a short explanation.
• Rounds two & three are “highlights”, including all of the NFC-West picks, with explanations for each of Seattle’s picks.
• Day Three (Rounds 4-7) is just the Seahawks’ picks.
• There are no ‘Summary’ or ‘Recap’ sections - except the one at the end that shows Seattle’s complete draft class.
• There is a ‘Final Thoughts’ section where I share, well, my final thoughts.

Note: A complete list of the other 31 team’s selections (through the end of Day Two) is in the ‘Bonus Coverage‘ section at the end of the article.

Let’s get to it.

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Round One

R1.01: Bryce Young (CAR)

Carolina can say, “Nuh-uh,” all they want, but it’s no longer a secret that they’re going to take the Alabama QB with the first pick in this year’s draft.

R1.02: EDGE Will Anderson Jr. (HST)

Alabama players go 1-2, marking only the 4th time in NFL history that teammates were the first two picks in the draft.

Note: The answer to this trivia question is Michigan State (1967), Nebraska (1984), and Penn State (2000).

R1.03: EDGE Tyree Wilson (AZ)

Georgia DT Jalen Carter is the more talented player, but the EDGE from Texas Tech is the “safer” pick for Arizona’s new regime.

TRADE!

The draft’s first BIG shock! The Colts move back from #4 in an intradivision trade with the rival Titans.

• Tennessee gets #4 and #79 (R4)
• Indianapolis gets #11, #41 (R2), QB Ryan Tannehill, and $14M in cap relief*

Note: Indy’s “cap relief” comes from Tennessee converting $14M of Tannehill’s 2023 base pay into a signing bonus prior to consummating the trade.

R1.04: QB C.J. Stroud (TEN)

When all is said and done, the Titans get 13 years younger at QB and save nearly $1.6M in cap space.

Note: Even after covering $14M of Tannehill’s 2023 salary, the Titans save $3.8M by moving him. Tennessee’s rookie pool increases by $2,202,701 as a result of moving up seven spots on Day One and back 38 spots on Day Two. Net result: An additional 1,597,299 in cap space.

TRADE!

Two of the trading-est GMs in the league get together for a little Draft Day magic.

• Philadelphia gets #5 and #52 (R2)
• Seattle gets two R1s (#10 + #30) and an R2 (#62)

Note: For the math geeks out there (of which I am one), picks 10, 30, and 62 have a combined cap hit of $7,477,751 in 2023, while picks 5 and 52 will cost 7,472,681. That’s a net difference of only $5,070. Over the life of all five rookie contracts, the net difference will be $27,882. Source: OTC Rookie Pool Estimates.

R1.05: DT Jalen Carter (PHI)

Howie Roseman knew he had to jump the line if he wanted to add Carter to the Eagles’ Georgia-North defense. Sacrificing the late-R1 hurt, but not as much as losing Carter to the Lions, Raiders, or Bears would have.

TRADE!

Washington jumps up 10 spots . . . and gives the Lions another EDGE who was drafted 2nd overall.

• Washington gets #6 and #55
• Detroit gets #16, #47 (R2), and 4th-year EDGE Chase Young

Note: Including his 5th-year option (decision due 5/1), Young will cost the Lions a little under $22.8M for two seasons.

R1.06: OT Peter Skoronski (WAS)

Ron Rivera addresses the O-line in a meaningful way, although it’s unclear if Skoronski will play Tackle or Guard in the nation’s capital.

R1.07: CB Devon Witherspoon (LV)

The Raiders opt not to gamble on a QB after giving Jimmy Garoppolo. a 3-year, $75M deal in free agency. Instead, they add a shutdown corner who held opposing QBs to a passer rating of 25.3 during his final season with the Fighting Illini.

R1.08: RB Bijan Robinson (ATL)

The Falcons give their 2nd-year QB (Desmond Ridder) the most dynamic player in the draft, adding serious firepower to a young arsenal that includes RB Tyler Allgeier (210-1,035-3), WR Drake London (72-866-4), and TE Kyle Pitts (68-1,026-1 in 2021).

TRADE!

The Bears move out of the top-10 and add a former R1 Tackle from the Jets.

• New York gets #9, #103 (R4), and a 2024 R3
• Chicago gets #13, #43 (R2), and OT Mekhi Becton

R1.09: OT Paris Johnson Jr. (NYJ)

The Jets save $3.1M by swapping Mekhi Becton for a versatile offensive lineman who started 13 games at RG in 2021 and 13 games at LT in 2022. Between those two seasons, Johnson allowed only 3 sacks and 28 total pressures on 910 pass-rush snaps.

R1.10: QB Anthony Richardson (SEA)

By moving back five spots in Round 1 and ten spots in Round 2, the Seahawks added a late-R1 (#30 overall), and still landed the player they would have selected at #5. That’s some damn fine GM’ing.

Note: By dropping from #5 to #10, the Seahawks save $11,736,996 over the life of Richardson’s rookie contract. Obviously, that doesn’t eliminate the inherent risk with the pick, but it should make it a little more palatable.

R1.11: CB Christian Gonzalez (IND)

Heading into the draft, QB and CB were the Colts’ two biggest needs and they’ve managed to address them both on Day One. That’s a Win.

R1.12: DT Calijah Kancey (HST)

Perhaps the Texans should have grabbed Will Levis here, but Houston has two 1st-round picks again in 2024 so there’s no reason to force the issue. Adding Anderson at #2 and now Kancey at #12 should make Houston’s defense infinitely better than it was last year, and that will make their new head coach very, VERY happy.

R1.13: OT Darnell Wright (CHI)

Chicago doubles up on offensive linemen by picking up Mekhi Becton via the earlier trade and then using this pick to add Wright. Factor in all the capital they got by moving back from #1 and this is a GREAT first round for Da Bears.

R1.14: QB Will Levis (NE)

In a repeat of the 2021 draft, Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots sit tight and add one of the top quarterbacks in the class with their native pick in the middle of the first round.

R1.15: TE Dalton Kincaid (GB)

In his first year as QB1, the Packers give Jordan Love the best pass-catching tight end in this year’s class (70-890-8).

R1.16: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (DET)

The Lions weren’t planning to draft an R1 wideout, but having three of the seven WRs on your roster suspended for gambling has a way of altering draft plans.

R1.17: CB Joey Porter Jr. (PIT)

Pittsburgh lost Cam Sutton in free agency; Porter makes them not mind so much. The fact that he’s a legacy in Steel City is the cherry on top.

R1.18: CB Deonte Banks (DET)

Of the four CBs on Detroit’s roster, only the recently-added Cam Sutton (3/$33M) is signed past this season.

R1.19: S Brian Branch (TB)

The Buccaneers have a litany of needs and they fill one of them by grabbing the best safety in the draft.

R1.20: WR Zay Flowers (SEA)

John Schneider knows the Seahawks need impact players on the defensive line, but Seattle also needs a succession plan at WR, and sliding Flowers into the lineup with Metcalf and Lockett could be like using a cheat code on ‘Madden’.

R1.21: WR Quentin Johnston (LAC)

Happy birthday to Keenan Allen who, celebrates his 31st birthday, coincidentally on Day One of the NFL Draft, by answering questions about his soon-to-be protégé -slash- eventual replacement.

TRADE!

The Cowboys move up four spots to add a playmaker.

• Dallas gets #22 and #124 (R4)
• Baltimore gets #26 and #90 (R3)

R1.22: TE Michael Mayer (DAL)

From 2020-2022, Dalton Schultz caught 198 passes for 2,000 yards and 17 TDs. Replacing that production won’t be easy, but Jerry Jones believes that Mayer can do it.

R1.23: QB Hendon Hooker (MIN)

A November ACL injury cut Hooker’s final college season short, but a report from the NFL Combine indicated that he is on track to play when the 2023 NFL season starts, and some evaluators believe that he could be the cream of this year’s quarterback crop.

R1.24: CB Emmanuel Forbes (JAX)

Jacksonville grabbed CB Tyson Campbell with the first pick of the second round last year; this year, they get him a running mate.

R1.25: WR Jordan Addison (NYG)

The Giants address their receiving corps early, and with ten picks in this year’s draft, they can afford to address it often.

R1.26: EDGE Lukas Van Ness (BLT)

Baltimore’s choice came down to the 6th cornerback or the 3rd EDGE, and it helped that the 3rd EDGE was the proverbial Best Player Available (BPA) at this point in the draft.

R1.27: EDGE Nolan Smith (BUF)

Von Miller tore his ACL on Thanksgiving last year. Is this selection a hedge against Miller not being 100% when the season starts or a much needed addition to the Bills’ pass-rushing group? Probably both.

R1.28: DT Bryan Bresee (CIN)

Rather than reaching for a tight end or running back, Cincinnati adds some much-needed help for their defensive line.

R1.29: EDGE Myles Murphy (NO)

After losing Marcus Davenport in free agency, and with Cam Jordan turning 34 this summer, the Saints need reinforcements on their defensive line. Enter Myles Murphy.

R1.30: DT/EDGE Adetomiwa Adebawore (SEA)

Is Ade’ Ade’ a Defensive Tackle or is he an EDGE? Perhaps he’s both. Whatever he ultimately ends up being, he’s also FAST! Ade’ Ade’ ran a 4.49 forty-yard dash at the NFL Combine, which is reportedly the fastest time EVER for a prospect weighing over 280 pounds.

R1.31: OT Broderick Jones (KC)

The defending NFL Champions close Day One by adding a 2-time National Champion to their roster. Last season (15 games, 470 pass-blocking snaps), Jones allowed only nine total pressures and ZERO sacks.

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Round Two

As mentioned at the outset, this round is only going to be Seattle’s picks and select “highlights” . . .

R2.33: Houston snags their third defensive lineman in as many picks, and any 12s hoping to grab Michigan‘s Mazi Smith at #37 are feeling dejected.

R2.34: Arizona doubles up on EDGE rushers, taking Iowa State‘s Will McDonald IV off the board.

TRADE! The Raiders move up three spots (to #35) and grab Florida OG O’Cyrus Torrence. Presumably, they were concerned that Seattle would take him at #37 (but we weren’t going to).

R2.36: The Rams use their first pick in the draft on South Carolina CB Cam Smith.

R2.37: The Seahawks’ hybrid-y defense gets another chess piece with USC’s Tuli Tuipulotu - another player who can play both Defensive Tackle and EDGE, depending on down, distance, and coaching decisions.

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TRADE! The Seahawks move up 11 spots, from #62 to #51. The cost for moving up? That’s a little bit complicated.

• Seattle gets #51 and EDGE Emmanuel Ogbah
• Miami gets #62, #198 (R6), and TE Noah Fant

To make the trade work, the Dolphins convert $12M of Ogbah’s $15M base salary to a signing bonus.

Seattle does the same with $3.85M of Fant’s 6.85M salary.

The net result is that both teams end up exactly where they started cap-wise.

For the Dolphins, Noah Fant is a plug-and-play replacement for Mike Gesicki who signed with the Patriots in free agency.

For Seattle, first and foremost, it’s the cost for moving up 11 spots to get the player they want. The added bonus is that they get an EDGE rusher who PFF credits with 21 sacks and 127 total pressures from 2020-2021.

Full transparency: Ogbah is coming off a season-ending triceps injury and while he should be good to go when training camp opens, 2022 was also a very down year for him before the injury (1 sack and 15 total pressures on 224 pass-rush snaps).

Ogbah is also under contract through 2025 with cap hits (post-trade) of $15.8M in 2024 and $16.9M in 2025. However, nothing past 2023 is guaranteed so there is zero cost if Seattle decides to move on from him after the season.

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R2.51: Who did Seattle move up eleven spots for? I want to say it’s Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs . . . but it’s not. The Seahawks actually moved up to grab TCU’s Steve Avila, a 6-foot-3, 332 brute who can play both Guard and Center (although obviously not at the same time).

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Round Three

Like Round Two, this is just the Seahawks’ picks and some other highlights.

R3.65: Houston finally grabs a quarterback, using the second pick of the third round on Stanford’s Tanner McKee.

R3.66: The Cardinals grab their third defensive player, adding Syracuse CB Garrett Williams at the top of Round Three.

R3.67 & R3.68: The Denver Broncos finally get on the clock with back-to-back picks near the top of Round Three. They use the first one on Notre Dame EDGE Isaiah Foskey and then add TCU CB Tre-Vius Hodges-Tomlinson with pick #68.

R3.69: Somehow, some way, the Rams luck into the second-best running back in the draft with Alabama’s Jahmyr Gibbs still on the board at #69.

R3.74: The Cleveland Browns use their first pick of the draft on Georgia Tech EDGE Keion White.

R3.77: The Rams add Texas LB DeMarvion Overshown to fill the roster spot that Bobby Wagner vacated after a single season in La La Land.

R3.83: The Seahawks almost got Georgia TE Darnell Washington, but Pittsburgh stopped his slide at #80. Seattle pivoted back to their original target and selected Clemson’s Trenton Simpson; an off-ball linebacker who’ll benefit from working with Bobby Wagner for (at least) a year.

R3.96c: The Cardinals grab their first offensive player, selecting Ole Miss WR Jonathan Mingo with the draft’s first compensatory selection.

Breaking News! The San Francisco 49ers are FINALLY on the clock! Seattle has made six selections to this point (plus added a veteran EDGE and moved on from a tight end). The Cardinals have made four selections (three on defense). The Rams have added a CB, an RB, and a DT.

R3.99c: With their first pick of the 2023 NFL Draft, the San Francisco 49ers select Texas A&M outside corner Jaylon Jones (who was only targeted 19 times in 2022).

R3.101c: The Niners double dip on the cornerback position, adding slot corner Jartavius Martin from the University of Illinois.

R3.102c: The San Francisco 49ers had the league’s BEST defense in 2022 so, naturally, they draft their third straight defensive player, snagging Auburn EDGE Colby Wooden with the final pick of Day Two.

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DAY THREE, ROUNDS 4-7

Super short section since it’s only Seattle’s picks.

R4.123: Seattle didn’t get RB Bijan Robinson, but maybe, just maybe, they’ll hit pay dirt with his backup, Roschon Johnson.

PFF’s ‘Bottom Line’: Johnson would have been a bell cow anywhere else in the country, and he could still end up one in the NFL.

R5.151: Did someone say 5th-round cornerback? It worked out for the Seahawks in 2022. Let’s put our hands together for Purdue CB Cory Trice.

PFF Summary: Trice is built like a linebacker who got kicked out to cornerback. He beats up opposing receivers in press coverage, allowing only one catch on 88 press snaps this past season.

R5.154: Nope, John and Pete didn’t forget that they need a Nose Tackle; they just waited a while before adding Coastal Carolina’s Jerrod Clark.

From the Draft Network: Clark is an ideal fit for a run-stuffing nose tackle. ... Clark has the build/power combination to control and occupy two gaps. He uses his power and 82-inch wing span to drive blockers backward. ... He projects as a 3-4 nose tackle on early downs but there is upside on third downs.

R7.237: Admittedly, this final pick is a stretch given the fact that EDGE Brenton Cox was dismissed from two college teams (Georgia and Florida), but 7th round picks are often fliers so . . . ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

From PFF (June 2021): Cox has one of the prettiest spin moves in college football but runs a little hot and cold throughout games.

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The Seahawks 2023 draft class

Here are the players Seattle selected in this mock draft:

• Anthony Richardson (R1.10)
• Zay Flowers (R1.20)
• Adetomiwa Adebawore (R1.30)
• Tuli Tuipulotu (R2.37)
• Steve Avila (R2.51)
• Trenton Simpson (R3.83)
• Roschon Johnson (R4.123)
• Cory Trice (R5.151)
• Jerrod Clark (R5.154)
• Brenton Cox (R7.237)

Note: The Seahawks also added veteran EDGE Emmanuel Ogbah (and moved on from TE Noah Fant).

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Final Thoughts

I waited too long on Darnell Washington and didn’t get a tight end. In theory, that’s okay as long as Will Dissly is ready to go Week 1 since Uncle Will, Colby Parkinson, and Tyler Mabry would be okay if that’s where the Seahawks end up this year. I do wish that I had moved up and taken Washington though; probably would have been worth it.

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Assuming we listed both Ade’ Ade’ and Tuipulotu as DTs, our D-line would look pretty solid:

• DTs/NTs: Dre’Mont Jones, Jarran Reed, Bryan Mone (IR), Myles Adams, Adetomiwa Adebawore, Tuli Tuipulotu, and Jerrod Clark
• EDGEs: Uchenna Nwosu, Darrell Taylor, Boye Mafe, Alton Robinson, Tyreke Smith, Emmanuel Ogbah, and Brenton Cox

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We still need to find some more running backs, but Walker and Johnson could be a fun 1-2 punch for the next few seasons.

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Finally, a “real” WR3 !!!

Go Hawks!

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Bonus Coverage

As promised, here are the draft classes (through Day Two) for the other 31 teams, starting with our NFC West rivals:

NFC West

Arizona

• R1.03: EDGE Tyree Wilson
• R2.34: EDGE Will McDonald IV
• R3.66: CB Garrett Williams
• R3.96: WR Jonathan Mingo
• Day 3: x4

Los Angeles

• R2.36: CB Cam Smith
• R3.69: RB Jahmyr Gibbs
• R3.77: LB DeMarvion Overshown
• Day 3: x8

San Francisco

• R3.99: CB Jaylon Jones
• R3.101: CB Jartavius Martin
• R3.102: EDGE Colby Wooden
• Day 3: x8

NFC North

Chicago

• R1.13: OT Darnell Wright
• R2.43: EDGE Felix Anudike-Uzomah
• R2.53: CB Kelee Ringo
• R2.61: OC Joe Tippmann
• R3.64: OG Chandler Zavala
• Day 3: x5

Note: Chicago also added OT Mekhi Becton in a trade with the Jets.

Detroit

• R1.16: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
• R1.18: CB Deonte Banks
• R2.47: TE Sam LaPorta
• R2.48: DT Siaki Ika
• R3.81: RB Zach Charbonnet
• Day 3: x4

Note: Detroit also added EDGE Chase Young in a trade with the Commanders.

Green Bay

• R1.15: TE Dalton Kincaid
• R2.45: S Antonio Johnson
• R3.78: WR Michael Wilson
• Day 3: x7

Minnesota

• R1.23: QB Hendon Hooker
• R3.87: LB Noah Sewell
• Day 3: x3

NFC East

Dallas

• R1.22: TE Michael Mayer
• R2.58: CB Julius Brents
• Day 3: x5

New York

• R1.25: WR Jordan Addison
• R2.57: OC John Michael Schmitz
• R3.89: LB Henry To’o To’o
• Day 3: x7

Philadelphia

• R1.05: DT Jalen Carter
• R2.52: WR Rashee Rice
• R3.94: S Jammie Robinson
• Day 3: x2

Washington

• R1.06: OT Peter Skoronski
• R2.55: CB Tyrique Stevenson
• R3.97: LB Ivan Pace Jr.
• Day 3: x5

NFC South

Atlanta

• R1.08: RB Bijan Robinson
• R2.44: EDGE B.J. Ojulari
• R3.75: OT Wanya Morris
• Day 3: x5

Carolina

• R1.01: QB Bryce Young
• R2.39: WR Josh Downs
• R3.93: EDGE Byron Young
• Day 3: x3

New Orleans

• R1.29: EDGE Myles Murphy
• R2.40: DT Keeanu Benton
• R3.71: WR Jalin Hyatt
• Day 3: x5

Tampa Bay

• R1.19: S Brian Branch
• R2.50: TE Luke Musgrave
• R3.82: OT Blake Freeland
• Day 3: x6

AFC West

Denver

• R3.67: EDGE Isaiah Foskey
• R3.68: CB Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson
• Day 3: x3

Kansas City

• R1. 31: OT Broderick Jones
• R2.63: WR Nathaniel Dell
• R3.95: DT Jaquelin Roy
• Day 3: x7

Las Vegas

• R1.07: CB Devon Witherspoon
• R2.35: OG O’Cyrus Torrence
• R3.70: EDGE Derick Hall
• R3.100: LB Dorian Williams
• Day 3: x7

Los Angeles

• R1.21: WR Quentin Johnston
• R2.54: LB Daiyan Henley
• R3.85: DT Kobie Turner
• Day 3: x4

AFC North

Baltimore

• R1.26: EDGE Lukas Van Ness
• R3.86: WR Marvin Mims
• R3.90: DT Zacch Pickens
• Day 3: x2

Cincinnati

• R1.28: DT Bryan Bresee
• R2.60: CB D.J. Turner
• R3.92: TE Tucker Kraft
• Day 3: x4

Cleveland

• R3.74: EDGE Keion White
• R3.98: S J.L. Skinner
• Day 3: x6

Pittsburgh

• R1.17: CB Joey Porter Jr.
• R2.32: OT Anton Harrison
• R2.49: LB Drew Sanders
• R3.80: TE Darnell Washington
• Day 3: x3

AFC East

Buffalo

• R1.27: EDGE Nolan Smith
• R2.59: LB Jack Campbell
• R3.91: DT Moro Ojomo
• Day 3: x3

Miami

• R2.62: S Sydney Brown
• R3.84: DT Gervon Dexter Sr.
• Day 3: x3

Note: Miami also added TE Noah Fant in a trade with the Seahawks.

New England

• R1.14: QB Will Levis
• R2.46: OT Matthew Bergeron
• R3.76: EDGE Karl Brooks
• Day 3: x7

New York

• R1.09: OT Paris Johnson Jr.
• R2.42: OC Luke Wypler
• Day 3: x4

AFC South

Houston

• R1.02: EDGE Will Anderson Jr.
• R1.12: DT Calijah Kancey
• R2.33: DT Mazi Smith
• R3.65: QB Tanner McKee
• R3.73: WR Cedric Tillman
• Day 3: x7

Indianapolis

• R1.11: CB Christian Gonzalez
• R2.38: OT Dawand Jones
• R2.41: OG Cody Mauch
• Day 3: x7

Note: Indianapolis also added QB Ryan Tannehill in a trade with the Titans.

Jacksonville

• R1.24: CB Emmanuel Forbes
• R2.56: EDGE Andre Carter II
• R3.88: S Jordan Battle
• Day 3: x6

Tennessee

R1.04: QB C.J. Stroud

R3.72: WR A.T. Perry

R3.79: CB Clark Phillips III

Day 3: x3