On Tuesday, I wrote about Peter King’s first (and only) mock draft and expressed considerable exasperation at the idea that the Seahawks would pass on the opportunity to select Florida QB Anthony Richardson at No. 5, and then again at No. 20.
Unsurprisingly, a fair number of the comments expressed disbelief at the idea that Anthony Richardson would even be available at No. 20.
As fate would have it, ESPN posted an article the same day that shared some insights from their Draft Day Predictor and one of the topics was: When will the top four quarterbacks be off the board?
And, even better, they included a link to the Draft Day Predictor so we all can have some FUN!
Here are the screenshots for each of the top four QBs, along with my interpretation of what the Draft Day Predictor is telling us:
Bryce Young (Alabama)
Interpretation: Young’s “tail” basically ends at No. 3, and there’s less than a 20% chance that he’ll still be on the board after the Carolina Panthers make the first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
C.J. Stroud (Ohio State)
Interpretation: Stroud is most likely to be selected at No. 2, either by the Texans or by a team that trades up into that spot. There is less than a 5% chance that Stroud will still be on the board at No. 7.
Anthony Richardson (Florida)
Interpretation: The height of Richardson’s selection range is between picks 4 and 6, with No. 5 having a slight advantage. There is almost no chance he lasts past pick No. 8.
Will Levis (Kentucky)
Interpretation: Levis has the highest chance of being selected at No. 4, but his long tail means he’s the only top-4 quarterback with a reasonable chance of sliding out of the top-10, and the chance that he could be on the board at No. 20 is a little less than 2%.
Is the ESPN Draft Day Predictor the end-all-be-all authority on the matter?
Nope! But it’s fun to play with.
And, now that we have a historical record of these results, we can revisit this article and see how the Predictor did.
Want one more? One more quarterback, that is . . .
Hendon Hooker (Tennessee)
Interpretation: Hooker has a spike at No. 22 and No. 23 (the Baltimore Ravens and Minnesota Vikings, respectively), but his best chance of being selected is at No. 34 or No. 35. Those picks are currently owned by the Arizona Cardinals (34) and Indianapolis Colts (35) which . . . is interesting.
ESPN addresses this exact scenario in their article, writing:
The model isn’t going to assume any team is going to do anything 100% of the time, and so in the event the Colts don’t take a quarterback at No. 4 or in the first-round, they become serious candidates to select Hooker at No. 35.
Bored with the quarterbacks?
Here’s the question that I’m dying to know: Will Texas RB Bijan Robinson still be on the board at No. 20?
Magic 8 ball ESPN’s Draft Day Predictor says, “Don’t hold your breath.”
Interpretation: There’s about a 15% chance that Robinson will slide to the Seahawks at No. 20. The good news, so to speak, is that it’s basically a coin flip as to whether or not he’ll be there a few picks earlier which means a trade UP wouldn’t be overly costly.
Assuming, of course, that John and Pete value Quandre Diggs’ opinion re: the best player in this year’s draft.
Jahmyr Gibbs (Alabama)
Interpretation: There is a decent chance that Gibbs slides into the tail end of the first round (peak chance at No. 30, which belongs to the Philadelphia Eagles). There is an almost-100% chance that Gibbs will be on the board at No. 20, but that falls to about 40% at No. 37 and about 15% at No. 52.
If the Seahawks are interested in one of top QBs, they’ll need to strike early. The top two running backs will last longer, but not as long as some might hope.
For those that are interested in wide receivers, tight ends, or which DEFENSIVE players might still be on the board at No. 5, No. 20, et cetera, here’s the link to the ESPN Draft Day Predictor (so you don’t have to scroll up or figure out which words to click on):