The disrespect has been noted?
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) is back and ready to project the NFL season, even though we haven’t hit training camp yet. If you need a refresher on how the FPI works, let them explain it:
For the uninitiated, the Football Power Index — commonly referred to as the FPI — is our rating and projection model for NFL teams. In the preseason, the model’s predictive ratings are based substantially on win totals from Caesars Sportsbook and strength of schedule, along with factors such as past team performance and returning starters. We use team ratings to simulate the season thousands of times, creating our projections, which update every day during the season. Game predictions are also informed by factors such as travel, rest differential and changes at starting quarterback.
All clear? Okay!
The Seattle Seahawks as having a 47.8 percent chance to reach the playoffs, with a projected win-loss record of essentially 8-8-1, considering their model averages out to 8.5-8.5. That’s a modest 15th in terms of playoff probability, and their chances of winning the division are only 24.4 percent. In fact, the San Francisco 49ers have the highest division probability odds of any team at 62.9 percent.
Super Bowl odds for the Seahawks are just 4.8 percent, and winning it all is 1.9 percent.
Keep in mind the W-L projections are funky, as every team is projected to win at least six games (rounding to the nearest whole number) but no more than 11, which is how no NFL season has ever worked. Seattle’s overall FPI rating is 0.1, which ranks 18th.
Field Gulls readers may recall back in 2021 that ESPN’s FPI simulation prior to the start of the regular season had one outcome where the Seahawks finished at just 5-12, and they weren’t too far off. In last year’s initial ratings the Seahawks were 27th and obviously that did not hold up.
Of course, ESPN’s analytics brand has taken a hit or two in recent months. Will Levis didn’t get drafted in Round 1, which uh... yeah.
Will Levis had almost zero chance to *not* be picked in the first round, according to ESPN Analytics.— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) April 28, 2023
Where could he land tomorrow? pic.twitter.com/LVEsZZjmh7
And more recently, the Miami Heat are up 3-1 on the Boston Celtics in the NBA’s Eastern Conference Finals, and even entering this series the percentages they came up with for this series was complete nonsense.
The Miami Heat have a 3% chance of reaching the NBA Finals, according to ESPN Analytics pic.twitter.com/CbeoYzZQOx— ESPN (@espn) May 15, 2023
So we’ll mark this down in May, revisit after preseason, and revisit again at the end of the season to see if ESPN’s FPI ends up striking out again on the Seahawks.