Why Geno Smith is the NFL’s best veteran quarterback value

When Geno Smith signed his contract extension with the Seattle Seahawks in early 2023, opinions landed across the board whether it was a “good idea.”

It was.

The move was certainly a risk - nobody on either side of the Geno Smith fence can deny that. Smith has now successfully done what nobody has ever really done in the NFL; namely go from career back-up to above-average NFL starter after 10 years.

Seattle bet on Smith to repeat or even progress. Smith bet on the team that finally gave him a chance at starter.

After two seasons under center for the Seahawks, the results are Geno Smith averaging $25 million per year and regularly floating around the “Top 10?” conversation.

I don’t know if you’ve seen the Bang For Buck piece yet from Seahawks beat reporter Corbin Smith, but it’s well worth an evaluation.

It’s some phenomenal data to put a bit of science behind a conversation that many of us have had unofficially. And it’s another mark for those who felt that when Smith signed for three years it was a remarkably team-friendly deal.

Smith (Corbin, not Geno) breaks it all down in his article, but he chose the 10 categories he felt create the most complete picture of a quarterback’s value. Then he simply divides it by that quarterback’s average salary over the duration of his current contract. The previous two seasons of play are used.

On the far right is the final value, which I have gone to the trouble of removing the zeroes and extra decimals for those in our readership whose strengths lie outside of Algebra.

Name - Bang for Buck Points

• Geno Smith - 304
• Dak Prescott - 173
• Patrick Mahomes - 159
• Josh Allen - 151
• Kirk Cousins - 138
• Jared Goff - 129
• Derek Carr - 124
• Joe Burrow - 120
• Justin Herbert - 117
• Jalen Hurts - 114
• Daniel Jones - 104
• Trevor Lawrence - 104
• Lamar Jackson - 90
• Matthew Stafford - 89
• Russell Wilson - 83
• Baker Mayfield - 80
• Aaron Rodgers - 75
• Kyler Murray - 67
• Deshaun Watson - 23

Smith (Geno, not Corbin) doubled every QB in the NFL besides Prescott and Mahomes. For the record, this is what happened when he added in rushing totals.

Now before you throw out a chart because it has Dak Prescott in second place, he’s cheaper than 10 of the 13 following QBs, and tied with two of those. That’s exactly how this chart is so intriguing: apparently $40m per year was a very good number to pay Dak Prescott. Apparently $55m per year for Trevor Lawrence might be prohibitive.

The categories that propelled Geno Smith to the top are exactly what you’d expect:

• Game Winning Drives
• Completion Percentage Above Expected (CPAE)
• Big Time Throws (BTT)

I want to contrast those with Dak for a second before returning to another of Geno’s strengths.

Notice Prescott has elite accuracy and success rate, but was abysmal - one of the worst QBs on this list - at interception percentage and game winning drives.

I would argue this goes a long way in determining the “franchise”, “clutch”, “it factor” element of QB play, whatever you want to call it. These numbers largely uphold the conversation about these two players. Dak has done some fun things but struggles to win games when it counts, while gladly finding his way to lose them through interceptions. Geno on the other hand, hasn’t hit the upper echelons of conversion rates, but he makes the big throws and led the NFL in game-winning drives.

Which would you rather have?

To add fuel to the fire, let’s look at Geno Smith’s second-best strength.

He’s not bad at anything.

Geno’s lowest score was two 75s. You have to drop all the way to Joe Burrow (8th) to even find another quarterback who didn’t have a value below 50. In fact, those are the only two on the list.

Honestly, we have it pretty good in Seattle.

Some of the benefits (money for the rest of the roster) aren’t quite yet realized because of other questionable decisions ($20m going to Jamal Adams), but Smith is a darn good quarterback on less than half the contract of Trevor Lawrence.

Counterpoint: Draft a Rookie

This graph does not include players on rookie contracts.

Some scream: “That’s the whole point! Rookies are the best deal! They are how you compete!”

For every C.J. Stroud there are three or even four Mitch Trubiskys. There is such a low hit rate with rookie quarterbacks in the past 10 years that I would absolutely and unequivocally vouch for standing with a notably un-injured QB putting out incredible value.

Which is exactly what the team did by not trading up from 16 this year.

And will do exactly nothing to quell the doubters.

What do you make of the Bang For Buck results?