The Seattle Seahawks currently have 6-to-1 odds to win Super Bowl 50, best in the NFL. They have finished first in DVOA for three straight seasons. They have the magic and elusive formula that has propelled only a few teams to prolonged greatness: An elite defense and an excellent quarterback, at the same damn time. It's enough to make you think they are going to be the best team in the league this year but maybe that only goes to show just how thin the line is between the top and the middle.
Because for being "the best," they sure do seem to have a number of glaring problems.
While I would not bet against the Seahawks winning the NFC West and probably being a heavy favorite to get one of the top two seeds, there's plenty to worry about this season. There's a reason that only two teams in league history have ever gone to three straight Super Bowls.
If Seattle is going to become the third to ever accomplish that feat, then they're going to have to overcome at least a couple of these issues:
#FirstPlaceProblems
Preseason strength of schedule has shown time and time again that it's largely meaningless. The Seahawks finished in first last season, which means that they will play two other division-winners: The Panthers and Cowboys. Except for the fact that nobody plays themselves, that means that the rest of the schedule is exactly the same for every NFC West team.
Every team has to play the Packers, though only Seattle and St. Louis have to do it at Lambeau. Every team has to play the Ravens, though only the Seahawks and Rams have to do it in Baltimore. Every team has to play the Bengals and ... you guess it, only Seattle and St. Louis has to do it in Cincinnati. Some would also say that the next-hardest out-of-division team that they all have to play is the Vikings and wouldn't you know it, the Seahawks and Rams are playing that game in Minnesota.
As for Carolina, I wouldn't necessarily say that any of the four teams in the NFC South appear to be better than the other three teams. I could see all four teams finishing in any of the four places. In Dallas, I think the Cowboys are the best team in the division, but people have been incorrectly guessing the NFC East for years; The Giants won the Super Bowl in 2011, the Redskins won the division in 2012, the Eagles won it in 2013, and then Dallas last season.
The biggest issue with this schedule though would seem to be that Aaron Rodgers is probably circling Seattle on his calendar, and isn't entirely sure where St. Louis even is. John Harbaugh, a man whose desire to beat the best is most-aptly compared to a vampires thirst for blood, is possibly a little more amped to play the Seahawks than he is the Cardinals. The Vikings have lost in Seattle in two of the last three seasons, and they might want a little payback.
Being in first, going to the Super Bowl in each of the last two seasons, means more people are watching. More people have more on the line. And more people are gunning for you so that they can advertise themselves as legit threats to win it all this year specifically because they beat your team.
Is the offensive line an experiment gone too far?
The current starting offensive line is Russell Okung, Alvin Bailey, Patrick Lewis, J.R. Sweezy, Justin Britt.
In his career, Bailey has 223 snaps at left guard (according to ProFootballFocus) all of which came last season, and Lewis has 279 career snaps at center, again all of which was last season. Neither of them were all that good, per most reports, either.
The good news is that Okung had 10 penalties (tied for sixth-most among offensive tackles) and Britt had eight (t-19th) as well as allowing 38 QB hurries (t-3rd most.) Luckily, the starting right guard might be above-average!
What's interesting is that the coaches are hoping someone steps up for the left guard and center position battles, maybe even someone who has zero career NFL snaps or potentially zero career snaps at any level at those particular positions.
The only true bright side to be seen to this is that with a poor offensive line in each of the last two seasons, the Seahawks have managed to be the best team in the conference both years. Whether or not they've gone too far in trading Max Unger, not really spending any money or using any draft picks to find his definite replacement for this season, and then not doing a whole lot to replace James Carpenter other than make it a competition between like 15 dudes, remains to be seen.
But the floor can't be much lower already ... could it?
Make like a landline and put down the receiver
Over the last five years the Seahawks have invested in players like Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin, and Mike Williams, spent second round picks on Golden Tate and Paul Richardson, and took fliers on "name" guys like Terrell Owens, Antonio Bryant, and Braylon Edwards. What they've found is that they're either very unlucky or just not that great on evaluating wide receiver talent. Perhaps that's why they've invested a ton more resources into developing a good receiver corps than they have on their secondary.
Yet their secondary is awesome and their receivers are ah-some. As in "ah man, I wish we had a legit number one. Or two."
At the moment, two undrafted free agents -- Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse -- appear set to be the top two targets this season at the position. The battle for three looks to be between a couple more UDFAs, Chris Matthews and Ricardo Lockette, a fourth round pick (Kevin Norwood) and rookie Tyler Lockett.
The "experience" advantage goes to Lockette and Norwood, who each had 174 snaps last season. Lockette was targeted 14 times, while Norwood drew Russell Wilson's attention 10 times. The group might get a "boost" in the second half of the year if Richardson returns, but despite a nice upswing on his production late in the year before tearing his ACL, he didn't do much overall to make us think he's going to make a huge difference on this team.
Especially not in 2015, coming off of knee surgery.
What they did do was add Jimmy Graham, who becomes the de facto number one "receiver" and primary target for Wilson. Last season, Seattle tight ends combined for 80 targets, 48 catches, 757 yards, 9.46 Yards per Target, six touchdowns, and six drops. Graham had 121 targets, 85 catches, 889 yards, 7.34 Y/T, 10 touchdowns, and eight drops.
The year before that he had 136 targets, 1,215 yards, 8.93 Y/T, and 16 touchdowns.
Graham is at least twice as good as Luke Willson, but a nice bonus to that is that Willson's receiving skills could be put to better use as a number two tight end than as the number one option.
However, it doesn't really do much to change the fact that outside of Graham, the offense does not have much in the way of receiving threats. Not when you need to gain more than 10 yards. I think a lot of the big, explosive gains we've seen over the last few years owe a lot of credit to the plays drawn up by Darrell Bevell and Pete Carroll. No, they don't always work, but we've seen times where Kearse can make a big play or catch because he's in the right position to do so. But they still lack the type of receiver that creates big plays no matter the situation because he has physical advantages that few players in the NFL have.
Maybe if Lockett is really "the next Antonio Brown," then they do have that kind of guy, but as of now, it looks like it's going to be a starting group that's fairly underwhelming.
Please no Marshawn Alexander situation
It's not something that anybody wants to talk about, but running backs break down at some point in their careers, usually before you want them to, and almost always before you expect them to.
Shaun Alexander broke down at age 29 after 1,717 careers carries and 188 receptions.
Lynch is now 29 and has 2,033 carries and 239 receptions.
But there is no hard-and-fast rule. Frank Gore is now 32 and he has 2,442 carries and 342 receptions. Matt Forte was 29 last season and he rushed for 1,038 yards and caught 102 passes for 808 yards. Jamaal Charles and Arian Foster are also going into their age-29 season.
Anything could happen to Lynch, but with each passing season the "anything" being an injury or deterioration of skill gets to be a little more realistic and that's scary for a team that has been largely defined by the production and personality of Lynch.
It would also seem like if the future of the position is going to be Christine Michael, he should probably start to show it any day now since he's in his third year of being on the team. They did not go the route of drafting or signing anyone else to do it (depending on how you feel about Robert Turbin being an every down back) and unless a trade is coming through the pipeline, Michael may be the only true answer to finding out who would play in Lynch's stead, if need be.
And that is one enigmatic fucking answer.
Trap season?
John Schneider's game of contract roulette may end up hitting a snag this season, as some of the team's most important players don't even know if they're going to be under contract past 2015. This particular problem has too many intangibles to really know if it could be a problem or not, but I can't help but wonder if anyone is going to be looking past this season and is simply anxious for the 2016 offseason to arrive.
You thought Wilson's negotiation was a big deal? Baby, that's just the tip of the iceberg.
Bruce Irvin is playing for a base salary of $1.66 million and has already said he wants to play for the Atlanta Falcons, who may or may not be one of the teams willing to give him a contract that could pay him more in a signing bonus than he will have made in his entire four-year career.
Bobby Wagner is playing for a base salary of $977,427 and as an All-Pro middle linebacker could earn as much as $10 million per season starting next year. He will have made about $4.3 million his four-year career up to then.
J.R. Sweezy will be playing for a base salary of $1.54 million and if he's better than Carpenter, could be earning more than $5 million per season starting in 2016. Maybe not in Seattle.
If Michael Bennett doesn't hold out this year, then he's almost certain to hold out next year if he doesn't get the contract that he may feel better reflects his usage on the field. Bennett has a base salary of just $4 million next season.
Baldwin has a non-guaranteed base salary of $4 million for 2016 and he may feel like he's an impending cap casualty unless he puts up bigger numbers, including more than the three touchdowns he scored in 2014.
Okung is seeing his base salary go down from $8.76 million in 2014 to $4.8 million in 2015 and then he hits free agency for the first time in his career. How anxious would that make you as a person?
Brandon Mebane has never known anything but being a member of the Seahawks for the last eight seasons, but now he's on the wrong side of 30 and headed into a contract year. That's got to be a heavy burden on his mind right now, as he starts to wonder where he could be living in 2016 and how he'll wind down his long football career.
Then of course there's Wilson, whose got a base salary lower than that of 16 of his teammates, and who hopes to take his $1.5 million base and literally get 100 times that much in a full-contract valuation. Wilson could see himself as being 16 games away from getting the contract that validates his success and puts him one step closer to the reality of the lifestyle he's already been living for these last couple of years as someone who is a face of the league but being paid like a non-roster invitee.
The good news is that Wilson also knows that being a two-time Super Bowl champion will pay even better than being a one-time champion. Motivation isn't an issue, but over-motivation could be.
A lot of players on the team could be looking ahead to next year but as we just saw, they got plenty to worry about this year.