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SCOAR: Week 4 Rankings & Predictions

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Patriots take the top spot while the Seahawks improve to 3rd.

Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

The NFL seemed to stabilize this week, with fewer noticeable upsets and a Seahawks win (that’s normal to expect these days, right?). With the 26-0 shutout over the Bears, Seattle moved back up into the top three, hopefully a place they will remain the remainder of the season. The Seahawks can continue to improve this week while facing the 24th ranked Lions.

For those of you who still aren't familiar with SCOAR...

SCOAR (SCaled Opponent-Adjusted point Ratio) is explained in detail here, but I'll provide a quick recap. Opponent-adjusted point ratio is the ratio of a team's points to the average points of that team's opponents, normalized with a logarithm. This value is calculated for a team's points for and points allowed then combined for a total rating. These results are then scaled using the average points scored across the league in order to give a result that corresponds directly to points.

Looking Back

SCOAR had another successful week, with a 12-4 straight up record paired with a 10-6 record against the spread. The season now stands at 29-19 (0.604) straight up and 27-21 (0.563) ATS. We’ll find out soon enough if this was just a lucky break or the start of some actual predictive ability for this season.

Game Predicted Actual Game Predicted Actual
Washington Redskins 18 21 Atlanta Falcons 15 39
New York Giants 28 32 Dallas Cowboys 34 28
Indianapolis Colts 16 35 Oakland Raiders 21 27
Tennessee Titans 19 33 Cleveland Browns 24 20
Cincinnati Bengals 25 28 Jacksonville Jaguars 12 17
Baltimore Ravens 16 24 New England Patriots 27 51
New Orleans Saints 10 22 Philadelphia Eagles 15 24
Carolina Panthers 29 27 New York Jets 28 17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 9 San Diego Chargers 19 14
Houston Texans 25 19 Minnesota Vikings 20 31
Pittsburgh Steelers 29 12 San Francisco 49ers 19 7
St. Louis Rams 15 6 Arizona Cardinals 25 47
Buffalo Bills 30 41 Chicago Bears 10 0
Miami Dolphins 23 14 Seattle Seahawks 32 26
Denver Broncos 29 24 Kansas City Chiefs 16 28
Detroit Lions 19 12 Green Bay Packers 21 38

Highs & Lows

  • Week 2 Best Single Game SCOAR – Seattle Seahawks: 72.89
  • Week 2 Worst Single Game SCOAR – Chicago Bears: -75.71
  • Season Best Single Game SCOAR – Seattle Seahawks: 72.89 (week 3)
  • Season Worst Single Game SCOAR – Chicago Bears: -75.71 (week 3)

SCOAR really likes shutouts.

On to the Numbers!

The top 5 is completely new this week, with the Patriots moving into first, posting a total SCOAR of 12.66. The Panthers improved to second overall at 10.92, followed closely by the revitalized Seahawks at 10.90. There is a noticeable dropoff after these teams before we reach the Cowboys (8.82) and the Steelers (8.57) to round out the top five. One surprising ranking toward the bottom of the chart is the Bears coming in at 30th, when most fans would probably rank them dead last. They have had a rather brutal schedule so far, facing the #8, #14, and #3 teams. I should probably add a "Strength of Schedule" column to these rankings…

Team W L O-SCOAR O Rank D-SCOAR D Rank SCOAR Last Week Change
1 New England Patriots 3 0 8.68 1 -3.97 5 12.66 3 2
2 Carolina Panthers 3 0 1.14 13 -9.78 1 10.92 5 3
3 Seattle Seahawks 1 2 2.38 9 -8.52 2 10.90 8 5
4 Dallas Cowboys 2 1 5.67 2 -3.15 7 8.82 1 (3)
5 Pittsburgh Steelers 2 1 0.48 16 -8.09 3 8.57 2 (3)
6 Denver Broncos 3 0 3.84 5 -2.79 8 6.62 6 -
7 New York Jets 2 1 -0.05 17 -6.46 4 6.42 7 -
8 Green Bay Packers 3 0 5.37 3 -1.03 15 6.40 9 1
9 Buffalo Bills 2 1 2.17 11 -3.84 6 6.01 11 2
10 Cincinnati Bengals 3 0 3.59 6 -1.90 12 5.48 4 (6)
11 Kansas City Chiefs 1 2 2.22 10 -1.99 11 4.20 10 (1)
12 Atlanta Falcons 3 0 2.54 8 -1.37 13 3.91 16 4
13 Philadelphia Eagles 1 2 0.75 15 -2.40 9 3.15 12 (1)
14 Arizona Cardinals 3 0 3.43 7 1.12 21 2.31 18 4
15 New York Giants 1 2 4.23 4 3.08 26 1.14 13 (2)
16 Houston Texans 1 2 -1.23 19 -2.12 10 0.89 14 (2)
17 Baltimore Ravens 0 3 -2.19 21 0.18 18 -2.38 22 5
18 St. Louis Rams 1 2 -3.66 25 -0.05 17 -3.61 25 7
19 Oakland Raiders 2 1 1.74 12 5.64 30 -3.91 23 4
20 San Francisco 49ers 1 2 -0.98 18 3.31 27 -4.29 17 (3)
21 Indianapolis Colts 1 2 -3.91 26 0.46 19 -4.36 19 (2)
22 Miami Dolphins 1 2 1.05 14 6.21 31 -5.16 21 (1)
23 Minnesota Vikings 2 1 -5.80 29 -0.39 16 -5.41 28 5
24 Detroit Lions 0 3 -3.61 24 1.94 23 -5.55 24 -
25 Cleveland Browns 1 2 -6.88 30 -1.23 14 -5.64 27 2
26 Washington Redskins 1 2 -5.07 28 0.80 20 -5.87 26 -
27 Jacksonville Jaguars 1 2 -4.43 27 1.48 22 -5.92 20 (7)
28 San Diego Chargers 1 2 -1.71 20 4.89 28 -6.60 15 (13)
29 New Orleans Saints 0 3 -2.19 22 5.05 29 -7.24 31 2
30 Chicago Bears 0 3 -8.06 31 2.15 24 -10.21 32 2
31 Tennessee Titans 1 2 -2.44 23 9.07 32 -11.51 30 (1)
32 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1 2 -10.67 32 2.31 25 -12.98 29 (3)

Notable Rankings

  • Biggest Climb - Rams, moving up 7 spots to #18
  • Deepest Fall - Chargers, dropping 13 spots to #28
  • Highest Loser - Seahawks at #3
  • Lowest Winner - Vikings at #23
  • Most Neutral - Texans (#16) with a SCOAR of 0.89

Week 4 SCOAR predictions

I do not recommend using these for betting purposes (although you're more than welcome to send me money if they help you).

A reminder that SCOAR doesn't know what a normal football score looks like, so it's bound to put up some very unlikely point totals.

Baltimore Ravens 12 New York Jets 28
Pittsburgh Steelers 26 Miami Dolphins 18
Jacksonville Jaguars 18 New York Giants 23
Indianapolis Colts 22 Buffalo Bills 32
Carolina Panthers 25 Philadelphia Eagles 24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5 Washington Redskins 19
Oakland Raiders 26 Houston Texans 20
Chicago Bears 23 Atlanta Falcons 23
Kansas City Chiefs 21 Cleveland Browns 19
Cincinnati Bengals 28 San Diego Chargers 22
Green Bay Packers 32 St. Louis Rams 16
San Francisco 49ers 20 Arizona Cardinals 30
Minnesota Vikings 15 Dallas Cowboys 33
Denver Broncos 28 New Orleans Saints 18
Detroit Lions 9
Seattle Seahawks 29