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The NFL seemed to stabilize this week, with fewer noticeable upsets and a Seahawks win (that’s normal to expect these days, right?). With the 26-0 shutout over the Bears, Seattle moved back up into the top three, hopefully a place they will remain the remainder of the season. The Seahawks can continue to improve this week while facing the 24th ranked Lions.
For those of you who still aren't familiar with SCOAR...
SCOAR (SCaled Opponent-Adjusted point Ratio) is explained in detail here, but I'll provide a quick recap. Opponent-adjusted point ratio is the ratio of a team's points to the average points of that team's opponents, normalized with a logarithm. This value is calculated for a team's points for and points allowed then combined for a total rating. These results are then scaled using the average points scored across the league in order to give a result that corresponds directly to points.
Looking Back
SCOAR had another successful week, with a 12-4 straight up record paired with a 10-6 record against the spread. The season now stands at 29-19 (0.604) straight up and 27-21 (0.563) ATS. We’ll find out soon enough if this was just a lucky break or the start of some actual predictive ability for this season.
| Game | Predicted | Actual | Game | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Redskins | 18 | 21 | Atlanta Falcons | 15 | 39 | |
| New York Giants | 28 | 32 | Dallas Cowboys | 34 | 28 | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 16 | 35 | Oakland Raiders | 21 | 27 | |
| Tennessee Titans | 19 | 33 | Cleveland Browns | 24 | 20 | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 25 | 28 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 12 | 17 | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 16 | 24 | New England Patriots | 27 | 51 | |
| New Orleans Saints | 10 | 22 | Philadelphia Eagles | 15 | 24 | |
| Carolina Panthers | 29 | 27 | New York Jets | 28 | 17 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 14 | 9 | San Diego Chargers | 19 | 14 | |
| Houston Texans | 25 | 19 | Minnesota Vikings | 20 | 31 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 29 | 12 | San Francisco 49ers | 19 | 7 | |
| St. Louis Rams | 15 | 6 | Arizona Cardinals | 25 | 47 | |
| Buffalo Bills | 30 | 41 | Chicago Bears | 10 | 0 | |
| Miami Dolphins | 23 | 14 | Seattle Seahawks | 32 | 26 | |
| Denver Broncos | 29 | 24 | Kansas City Chiefs | 16 | 28 | |
| Detroit Lions | 19 | 12 | Green Bay Packers | 21 | 38 |
Highs & Lows
- Week 2 Best Single Game SCOAR – Seattle Seahawks: 72.89
- Week 2 Worst Single Game SCOAR – Chicago Bears: -75.71
- Season Best Single Game SCOAR – Seattle Seahawks: 72.89 (week 3)
- Season Worst Single Game SCOAR – Chicago Bears: -75.71 (week 3)
SCOAR really likes shutouts.
On to the Numbers!
The top 5 is completely new this week, with the Patriots moving into first, posting a total SCOAR of 12.66. The Panthers improved to second overall at 10.92, followed closely by the revitalized Seahawks at 10.90. There is a noticeable dropoff after these teams before we reach the Cowboys (8.82) and the Steelers (8.57) to round out the top five. One surprising ranking toward the bottom of the chart is the Bears coming in at 30th, when most fans would probably rank them dead last. They have had a rather brutal schedule so far, facing the #8, #14, and #3 teams. I should probably add a "Strength of Schedule" column to these rankings…
| Team | W | L | O-SCOAR | O Rank | D-SCOAR | D Rank | SCOAR | Last Week | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New England Patriots | 3 | 0 | 8.68 | 1 | -3.97 | 5 | 12.66 | 3 | 2 |
| 2 | Carolina Panthers | 3 | 0 | 1.14 | 13 | -9.78 | 1 | 10.92 | 5 | 3 |
| 3 | Seattle Seahawks | 1 | 2 | 2.38 | 9 | -8.52 | 2 | 10.90 | 8 | 5 |
| 4 | Dallas Cowboys | 2 | 1 | 5.67 | 2 | -3.15 | 7 | 8.82 | 1 | (3) |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 2 | 1 | 0.48 | 16 | -8.09 | 3 | 8.57 | 2 | (3) |
| 6 | Denver Broncos | 3 | 0 | 3.84 | 5 | -2.79 | 8 | 6.62 | 6 | - |
| 7 | New York Jets | 2 | 1 | -0.05 | 17 | -6.46 | 4 | 6.42 | 7 | - |
| 8 | Green Bay Packers | 3 | 0 | 5.37 | 3 | -1.03 | 15 | 6.40 | 9 | 1 |
| 9 | Buffalo Bills | 2 | 1 | 2.17 | 11 | -3.84 | 6 | 6.01 | 11 | 2 |
| 10 | Cincinnati Bengals | 3 | 0 | 3.59 | 6 | -1.90 | 12 | 5.48 | 4 | (6) |
| 11 | Kansas City Chiefs | 1 | 2 | 2.22 | 10 | -1.99 | 11 | 4.20 | 10 | (1) |
| 12 | Atlanta Falcons | 3 | 0 | 2.54 | 8 | -1.37 | 13 | 3.91 | 16 | 4 |
| 13 | Philadelphia Eagles | 1 | 2 | 0.75 | 15 | -2.40 | 9 | 3.15 | 12 | (1) |
| 14 | Arizona Cardinals | 3 | 0 | 3.43 | 7 | 1.12 | 21 | 2.31 | 18 | 4 |
| 15 | New York Giants | 1 | 2 | 4.23 | 4 | 3.08 | 26 | 1.14 | 13 | (2) |
| 16 | Houston Texans | 1 | 2 | -1.23 | 19 | -2.12 | 10 | 0.89 | 14 | (2) |
| 17 | Baltimore Ravens | 0 | 3 | -2.19 | 21 | 0.18 | 18 | -2.38 | 22 | 5 |
| 18 | St. Louis Rams | 1 | 2 | -3.66 | 25 | -0.05 | 17 | -3.61 | 25 | 7 |
| 19 | Oakland Raiders | 2 | 1 | 1.74 | 12 | 5.64 | 30 | -3.91 | 23 | 4 |
| 20 | San Francisco 49ers | 1 | 2 | -0.98 | 18 | 3.31 | 27 | -4.29 | 17 | (3) |
| 21 | Indianapolis Colts | 1 | 2 | -3.91 | 26 | 0.46 | 19 | -4.36 | 19 | (2) |
| 22 | Miami Dolphins | 1 | 2 | 1.05 | 14 | 6.21 | 31 | -5.16 | 21 | (1) |
| 23 | Minnesota Vikings | 2 | 1 | -5.80 | 29 | -0.39 | 16 | -5.41 | 28 | 5 |
| 24 | Detroit Lions | 0 | 3 | -3.61 | 24 | 1.94 | 23 | -5.55 | 24 | - |
| 25 | Cleveland Browns | 1 | 2 | -6.88 | 30 | -1.23 | 14 | -5.64 | 27 | 2 |
| 26 | Washington Redskins | 1 | 2 | -5.07 | 28 | 0.80 | 20 | -5.87 | 26 | - |
| 27 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 1 | 2 | -4.43 | 27 | 1.48 | 22 | -5.92 | 20 | (7) |
| 28 | San Diego Chargers | 1 | 2 | -1.71 | 20 | 4.89 | 28 | -6.60 | 15 | (13) |
| 29 | New Orleans Saints | 0 | 3 | -2.19 | 22 | 5.05 | 29 | -7.24 | 31 | 2 |
| 30 | Chicago Bears | 0 | 3 | -8.06 | 31 | 2.15 | 24 | -10.21 | 32 | 2 |
| 31 | Tennessee Titans | 1 | 2 | -2.44 | 23 | 9.07 | 32 | -11.51 | 30 | (1) |
| 32 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1 | 2 | -10.67 | 32 | 2.31 | 25 | -12.98 | 29 | (3) |
Notable Rankings
- Biggest Climb - Rams, moving up 7 spots to #18
- Deepest Fall - Chargers, dropping 13 spots to #28
- Highest Loser - Seahawks at #3
- Lowest Winner - Vikings at #23
- Most Neutral - Texans (#16) with a SCOAR of 0.89
Week 4 SCOAR predictions
I do not recommend using these for betting purposes (although you're more than welcome to send me money if they help you).
A reminder that SCOAR doesn't know what a normal football score looks like, so it's bound to put up some very unlikely point totals.
| Baltimore Ravens | 12 | New York Jets | 28 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 26 | Miami Dolphins | 18 | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 18 | New York Giants | 23 | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 22 | Buffalo Bills | 32 | |
| Carolina Panthers | 25 | Philadelphia Eagles | 24 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5 | Washington Redskins | 19 | |
| Oakland Raiders | 26 | Houston Texans | 20 | |
| Chicago Bears | 23 | Atlanta Falcons | 23 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 21 | Cleveland Browns | 19 | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 28 | San Diego Chargers | 22 | |
| Green Bay Packers | 32 | St. Louis Rams | 16 | |
| San Francisco 49ers | 20 | Arizona Cardinals | 30 | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 15 | Dallas Cowboys | 33 | |
| Denver Broncos | 28 | New Orleans Saints | 18 | |
| Detroit Lions | 9 | |||
| Seattle Seahawks | 29 |