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SCOAR: Week 6 Rankings & Predictions

Results from 2014 are officially off the books. SCOAR only cares what you've done for it lately.

Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Apologies for the late update, work/life has been hectic and I’ve been neglecting Field Gulls for the last couple weeks. Also, a thank you to those who pointed out the typo in last week’s scores, hopefully I entered everything correctly this time around.

We’re finally clear of all 2014 games, leaving nothing but the current season’s results to impact SCOAR. Another added benefit is we will now be increasing our sample size, instead of just shifting it from week to week. This should provide more accurate ratings as the remainder of the season progresses.

For those of you who still aren't familiar with SCOAR...

SCOAR (SCaled Opponent-Adjusted point Ratio) is explained in detail here, but I'll provide a quick recap. Opponent-adjusted point ratio is the ratio of a team's points to the average points of that team's opponents, normalized with a logarithm. This value is calculated for a team's points for and points allowed then combined for a total rating. These results are then scaled using the average points scored across the league in order to give a result that corresponds directly to points.

Looking Back

SCOAR was fantastic in straight up predictions, going 12-2 in week 5. Picking against the spread was less successful, only managing a 6-6-2 record. I also discovered a bug in the formulas that didn’t account for the possibility of a push, instead assigning them as wins/losses depending on a few other variables. This has been fixed and will now accurately reflect that result. The season total now stands at 50-27 (0.649) straight up and 37-31-6 (0.544) ATS.

Game Predicted Actual Game Predicted Actual
Indianapolis Colts 20 27 Chicago Bears 17 18
Houston Texans 18 20 Kansas City Chiefs 30 17
Seattle Seahawks 18 24 Washington Redskins 18 19
Cincinnati Bengals 22 27 Atlanta Falcons 32 25
Jacksonville Jaguars 19 31 New Orleans Saints 19 17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22 38 Philadelphia Eagles 25 39
Cleveland Browns 16 33 St. Louis Rams 14 10
Baltimore Ravens 26 30 Green Bay Packers 28 24
Buffalo Bills 29 14 Arizona Cardinals 31 42
Tennessee Titans 22 13 Detroit Lions 20 17
New England Patriots 31 30 Denver Broncos 34 16
Dallas Cowboys 27 6 Oakland Raiders 18 10
San Francisco 49ers 13 27 Pittsburgh Steelers 27 24
New York Giants 27 30 San Diego Chargers 18 20

Highs & Lows

  • Week 5 Best Single Game SCOAR – New England Patriots: 45.37
  • Week 5 Worst Single Game SCOAR – San Francisco 49ers: -35.81
  • Season Best Single Game SCOAR – Seattle Seahawks: 69.66 (week 3)
  • Season Worst Single Game SCOAR – Chicago Bears: -78.38 (week 3)

On to the Numbers!

Big shakeups in the top five this week, with the inclusion of three new teams. First place still belongs to the Patriots, with a SCOAR of 13.65. Next we have the three newbies, with the Jets (9.58), Falcons (6.99), and Cardinals (6.87). The Bills come in at fifth with a SCOAR of 6.55. The surprise drop from the leaders is the Panthers, who were in 2nd last week and fell all the way to number 12 after having their 34-3 win over the Falcons in week 17 last year removed from the formulas. The Seahawks remain in 13th with a very meh rating of 1.34.

Team W L O-SCOAR O Rank D-SCOAR D Rank SCOAR Last Week Change
1 New England Patriots 4 0 10.36 1 -3.28 7 13.65 1 -
2 New York Jets 3 1 0.05 14 -9.53 1 9.58 6 4
3 Atlanta Falcons 5 0 7.66 3 0.67 18 6.99 7 4
4 Arizona Cardinals 4 1 7.86 2 0.99 20 6.87 12 8
5 Buffalo Bills 3 2 2.47 7 -4.07 4 6.55 4 (1)
6 Cincinnati Bengals 5 0 3.49 4 -2.96 8 6.45 8 2
7 Green Bay Packers 5 0 1.71 9 -3.59 5 5.30 9 2
8 Denver Broncos 5 0 -2.64 22 -6.80 2 4.16 3 (5)
9 Pittsburgh Steelers 3 2 -0.72 15 -4.79 3 4.07 5 (4)
10 Philadelphia Eagles 2 3 1.06 10 -2.82 10 3.89 14 4
11 New York Giants 3 2 2.52 6 -0.58 15 3.10 10 (1)
12 Carolina Panthers 4 0 -1.30 17 -2.94 9 1.64 2 (10)
13 Seattle Seahawks 2 3 -0.81 16 -2.15 12 1.34 13 -
14 St. Louis Rams 2 3 -2.50 21 -3.42 6 0.93 19 5
15 Baltimore Ravens 1 4 3.40 5 2.84 27 0.56 15 -
16 Tennessee Titans 1 3 0.56 12 0.21 17 0.35 23 7
17 Dallas Cowboys 2 3 -2.47 20 -1.55 13 -0.93 11 (6)
18 Washington Redskins 2 3 -3.47 25 -2.38 11 -1.09 28 10
19 Cleveland Browns 2 3 0.49 13 2.50 26 -2.01 26 7
20 San Diego Chargers 2 3 0.93 11 3.77 29 -2.84 25 5
21 Kansas City Chiefs 1 4 1.94 8 4.81 31 -2.87 16 (5)
22 Indianapolis Colts 3 2 -3.17 24 0.19 16 -3.35 17 (5)
23 Minnesota Vikings 2 2 -4.74 27 -1.36 14 -3.38 20 (3)
24 Oakland Raiders 2 3 -2.31 19 1.23 21 -3.54 27 3
25 New Orleans Saints 1 4 -1.97 18 2.10 24 -4.07 18 (7)
26 San Francisco 49ers 1 4 -5.04 29 0.69 19 -5.74 22 (4)
27 Detroit Lions 0 5 -3.96 26 2.10 25 -6.06 21 (6)
28 Chicago Bears 2 3 -5.09 30 1.62 22 -6.71 30 2
29 Houston Texans 1 4 -5.11 31 1.85 23 -6.96 24 (5)
30 Jacksonville Jaguars 1 4 -4.74 28 3.93 30 -8.67 32 2
31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2 3 -2.98 23 6.64 32 -9.62 31 -
32 Miami Dolphins 1 3 -6.08 32 3.56 28 -9.65 29 (3)

Notable Rankings

  • Biggest Climb - Redskins, moving up 10 spots to #18
  • Deepest Fall - Panthers, dropping 10 spots to #12
  • Highest Loser - Eagles at #10
  • Lowest Winner - Colts at #22
  • Most Neutral – Titans (#16) with a SCOAR of 0.35

Week 6 SCOAR predictions

I do not recommend using these for betting purposes (although you're more than welcome to send me money if they help you).

A reminder that SCOAR doesn't know what a normal football score looks like, so it's bound to put up some very unlikely point totals.

Atlanta Falcons 34 Washington Redskins 9
New Orleans Saints 22 New York Jets 23
Arizona Cardinals 29 Kansas City Chiefs 20
Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Minnesota Vikings 26
Cincinnati Bengals 26 Chicago Bears 19
Buffalo Bills 24 Detroit Lions 23
Denver Broncos 23 Houston Texans 22
Cleveland Browns 18 Jacksonville Jaguars 23
Miami Dolphins 15 Carolina Panthers 20
Tennessee Titans 29 Seattle Seahawks 21
San Diego Chargers 17 Baltimore Ravens 27
Green Bay Packers 31 San Francisco 49ers 22
New England Patriots 34 New York Giants 22
Indianapolis Colts 18 Philadelphia Eagles 24