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Apologies for the late update, work/life has been hectic and I’ve been neglecting Field Gulls for the last couple weeks. Also, a thank you to those who pointed out the typo in last week’s scores, hopefully I entered everything correctly this time around.
We’re finally clear of all 2014 games, leaving nothing but the current season’s results to impact SCOAR. Another added benefit is we will now be increasing our sample size, instead of just shifting it from week to week. This should provide more accurate ratings as the remainder of the season progresses.
For those of you who still aren't familiar with SCOAR...
SCOAR (SCaled Opponent-Adjusted point Ratio) is explained in detail here, but I'll provide a quick recap. Opponent-adjusted point ratio is the ratio of a team's points to the average points of that team's opponents, normalized with a logarithm. This value is calculated for a team's points for and points allowed then combined for a total rating. These results are then scaled using the average points scored across the league in order to give a result that corresponds directly to points.
Looking Back
SCOAR was fantastic in straight up predictions, going 12-2 in week 5. Picking against the spread was less successful, only managing a 6-6-2 record. I also discovered a bug in the formulas that didn’t account for the possibility of a push, instead assigning them as wins/losses depending on a few other variables. This has been fixed and will now accurately reflect that result. The season total now stands at 50-27 (0.649) straight up and 37-31-6 (0.544) ATS.
| Game | Predicted | Actual | Game | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | 20 | 27 | Chicago Bears | 17 | 18 | |
| Houston Texans | 18 | 20 | Kansas City Chiefs | 30 | 17 | |
| Seattle Seahawks | 18 | 24 | Washington Redskins | 18 | 19 | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 22 | 27 | Atlanta Falcons | 32 | 25 | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 19 | 31 | New Orleans Saints | 19 | 17 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 22 | 38 | Philadelphia Eagles | 25 | 39 | |
| Cleveland Browns | 16 | 33 | St. Louis Rams | 14 | 10 | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 26 | 30 | Green Bay Packers | 28 | 24 | |
| Buffalo Bills | 29 | 14 | Arizona Cardinals | 31 | 42 | |
| Tennessee Titans | 22 | 13 | Detroit Lions | 20 | 17 | |
| New England Patriots | 31 | 30 | Denver Broncos | 34 | 16 | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 27 | 6 | Oakland Raiders | 18 | 10 | |
| San Francisco 49ers | 13 | 27 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 27 | 24 | |
| New York Giants | 27 | 30 | San Diego Chargers | 18 | 20 |
Highs & Lows
- Week 5 Best Single Game SCOAR – New England Patriots: 45.37
- Week 5 Worst Single Game SCOAR – San Francisco 49ers: -35.81
- Season Best Single Game SCOAR – Seattle Seahawks: 69.66 (week 3)
- Season Worst Single Game SCOAR – Chicago Bears: -78.38 (week 3)
On to the Numbers!
Big shakeups in the top five this week, with the inclusion of three new teams. First place still belongs to the Patriots, with a SCOAR of 13.65. Next we have the three newbies, with the Jets (9.58), Falcons (6.99), and Cardinals (6.87). The Bills come in at fifth with a SCOAR of 6.55. The surprise drop from the leaders is the Panthers, who were in 2nd last week and fell all the way to number 12 after having their 34-3 win over the Falcons in week 17 last year removed from the formulas. The Seahawks remain in 13th with a very meh rating of 1.34.
| Team | W | L | O-SCOAR | O Rank | D-SCOAR | D Rank | SCOAR | Last Week | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New England Patriots | 4 | 0 | 10.36 | 1 | -3.28 | 7 | 13.65 | 1 | - |
| 2 | New York Jets | 3 | 1 | 0.05 | 14 | -9.53 | 1 | 9.58 | 6 | 4 |
| 3 | Atlanta Falcons | 5 | 0 | 7.66 | 3 | 0.67 | 18 | 6.99 | 7 | 4 |
| 4 | Arizona Cardinals | 4 | 1 | 7.86 | 2 | 0.99 | 20 | 6.87 | 12 | 8 |
| 5 | Buffalo Bills | 3 | 2 | 2.47 | 7 | -4.07 | 4 | 6.55 | 4 | (1) |
| 6 | Cincinnati Bengals | 5 | 0 | 3.49 | 4 | -2.96 | 8 | 6.45 | 8 | 2 |
| 7 | Green Bay Packers | 5 | 0 | 1.71 | 9 | -3.59 | 5 | 5.30 | 9 | 2 |
| 8 | Denver Broncos | 5 | 0 | -2.64 | 22 | -6.80 | 2 | 4.16 | 3 | (5) |
| 9 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 3 | 2 | -0.72 | 15 | -4.79 | 3 | 4.07 | 5 | (4) |
| 10 | Philadelphia Eagles | 2 | 3 | 1.06 | 10 | -2.82 | 10 | 3.89 | 14 | 4 |
| 11 | New York Giants | 3 | 2 | 2.52 | 6 | -0.58 | 15 | 3.10 | 10 | (1) |
| 12 | Carolina Panthers | 4 | 0 | -1.30 | 17 | -2.94 | 9 | 1.64 | 2 | (10) |
| 13 | Seattle Seahawks | 2 | 3 | -0.81 | 16 | -2.15 | 12 | 1.34 | 13 | - |
| 14 | St. Louis Rams | 2 | 3 | -2.50 | 21 | -3.42 | 6 | 0.93 | 19 | 5 |
| 15 | Baltimore Ravens | 1 | 4 | 3.40 | 5 | 2.84 | 27 | 0.56 | 15 | - |
| 16 | Tennessee Titans | 1 | 3 | 0.56 | 12 | 0.21 | 17 | 0.35 | 23 | 7 |
| 17 | Dallas Cowboys | 2 | 3 | -2.47 | 20 | -1.55 | 13 | -0.93 | 11 | (6) |
| 18 | Washington Redskins | 2 | 3 | -3.47 | 25 | -2.38 | 11 | -1.09 | 28 | 10 |
| 19 | Cleveland Browns | 2 | 3 | 0.49 | 13 | 2.50 | 26 | -2.01 | 26 | 7 |
| 20 | San Diego Chargers | 2 | 3 | 0.93 | 11 | 3.77 | 29 | -2.84 | 25 | 5 |
| 21 | Kansas City Chiefs | 1 | 4 | 1.94 | 8 | 4.81 | 31 | -2.87 | 16 | (5) |
| 22 | Indianapolis Colts | 3 | 2 | -3.17 | 24 | 0.19 | 16 | -3.35 | 17 | (5) |
| 23 | Minnesota Vikings | 2 | 2 | -4.74 | 27 | -1.36 | 14 | -3.38 | 20 | (3) |
| 24 | Oakland Raiders | 2 | 3 | -2.31 | 19 | 1.23 | 21 | -3.54 | 27 | 3 |
| 25 | New Orleans Saints | 1 | 4 | -1.97 | 18 | 2.10 | 24 | -4.07 | 18 | (7) |
| 26 | San Francisco 49ers | 1 | 4 | -5.04 | 29 | 0.69 | 19 | -5.74 | 22 | (4) |
| 27 | Detroit Lions | 0 | 5 | -3.96 | 26 | 2.10 | 25 | -6.06 | 21 | (6) |
| 28 | Chicago Bears | 2 | 3 | -5.09 | 30 | 1.62 | 22 | -6.71 | 30 | 2 |
| 29 | Houston Texans | 1 | 4 | -5.11 | 31 | 1.85 | 23 | -6.96 | 24 | (5) |
| 30 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 1 | 4 | -4.74 | 28 | 3.93 | 30 | -8.67 | 32 | 2 |
| 31 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2 | 3 | -2.98 | 23 | 6.64 | 32 | -9.62 | 31 | - |
| 32 | Miami Dolphins | 1 | 3 | -6.08 | 32 | 3.56 | 28 | -9.65 | 29 | (3) |
Notable Rankings
- Biggest Climb - Redskins, moving up 10 spots to #18
- Deepest Fall - Panthers, dropping 10 spots to #12
- Highest Loser - Eagles at #10
- Lowest Winner - Colts at #22
- Most Neutral – Titans (#16) with a SCOAR of 0.35
Week 6 SCOAR predictions
I do not recommend using these for betting purposes (although you're more than welcome to send me money if they help you).
A reminder that SCOAR doesn't know what a normal football score looks like, so it's bound to put up some very unlikely point totals.
| Atlanta Falcons | 34 | Washington Redskins | 9 | |
| New Orleans Saints | 22 | New York Jets | 23 | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 29 | Kansas City Chiefs | 20 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 23 | Minnesota Vikings | 26 | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 26 | Chicago Bears | 19 | |
| Buffalo Bills | 24 | Detroit Lions | 23 | |
| Denver Broncos | 23 | Houston Texans | 22 | |
| Cleveland Browns | 18 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 23 | |
| Miami Dolphins | 15 | Carolina Panthers | 20 | |
| Tennessee Titans | 29 | Seattle Seahawks | 21 | |
| San Diego Chargers | 17 | Baltimore Ravens | 27 | |
| Green Bay Packers | 31 | San Francisco 49ers | 22 | |
| New England Patriots | 34 | New York Giants | 22 | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 18 | Philadelphia Eagles | 24 |