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Despite another disappointing loss, the Seahawks’ SCOAR rebounded slightly this week, moving them up one position and distancing them from neutral. They will look to further improve this week while facing the 26th ranked 49ers on Thursday.
For those of you who still aren't familiar with SCOAR...
SCOAR (SCaled Opponent-Adjusted point Ratio) is explained in detail here, but I'll provide a quick recap. Opponent-adjusted point ratio is the ratio of a team's points to the average points of that team's opponents, normalized with a logarithm. This value is calculated for a team's points for and points allowed then combined for a total rating. These results are then scaled using the average points scored across the league in order to give a result that corresponds directly to points.
Looking Back
SCOAR had a rough week making predictions, only managing an 8-6 record straight up and a miserable 4-10 against the spread. On 5 of those losses, the SCOAR prediction was within 1.5 points of the spread, just unfortunately on the wrong side. The season total now stands at 58-33 (0.637) straight up and 41-41-6 (0.500) ATS.
| Game | Predicted | Actual | Game | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | 34 | 21 | Washington Redskins | 9 | 20 | |
| New Orleans Saints | 22 | 31 | New York Jets | 23 | 34 | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 29 | 13 | Kansas City Chiefs | 20 | 10 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 23 | 25 | Minnesota Vikings | 26 | 16 | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 26 | 34 | Chicago Bears | 19 | 34 | |
| Buffalo Bills | 24 | 21 | Detroit Lions | 23 | 37 | |
| Denver Broncos | 23 | 26 | Houston Texans | 22 | 31 | |
| Cleveland Browns | 18 | 23 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 23 | 20 | |
| Miami Dolphins | 15 | 38 | Carolina Panthers | 20 | 27 | |
| Tennessee Titans | 29 | 10 | Seattle Seahawks | 21 | 23 | |
| San Diego Chargers | 17 | 20 | Baltimore Ravens | 27 | 20 | |
| Green Bay Packers | 31 | 27 | San Francisco 49ers | 22 | 25 | |
| New England Patriots | 34 | 34 | New York Giants | 22 | 7 | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 18 | 27 | Philadelphia Eagles | 24 | 27 |
Highs & Lows
- Week 6 Best Single Game SCOAR – Philadelphia Eagles: 32.80
- Week 6 Worst Single Game SCOAR – Tennessee Titans: -30.91
- Season Best Single Game SCOAR – Seattle Seahawks: 69.21 (week 3)
- Season Worst Single Game SCOAR – Chicago Bears: -76.91 (week 3)
On to the Numbers!
The New York Jets (11.42) take the top spot after an impressive start to the season. This drops the Patriots to 2nd with a SCOAR of 10.79. The Steelers are a surprise addition to the top five, pulling out wins despite Roethlisberger’s absence on their way to a rating of 8.07. The Cardinals (7.55) and Bengals (7.09) round out the top five. The Seahawks moved up one spot in the rankings, now coming in at 12th. I've added strength of schedule to the chart, it is simply the average SCOAR of opponents.
| Team | W | L | SOS | SOS Rank | O-SCOAR | O Rank | D-SCOAR | D Rank | SCOAR | Last Week | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Jets | 4 | 1 | -0.252 | 21 | 2.80 | 5 | -8.63 | 1 | 11.42 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | New England Patriots | 5 | 0 | -0.187 | 18 | 9.61 | 1 | -1.19 | 12 | 10.79 | 1 | (1) |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 4 | 2 | 1.539 | 8 | 0.35 | 12 | -7.72 | 2 | 8.07 | 9 | 6 |
| 4 | Arizona Cardinals | 4 | 2 | -2.308 | 25 | 6.57 | 2 | -0.98 | 13 | 7.55 | 4 | - |
| 5 | Cincinnati Bengals | 6 | 0 | -0.427 | 22 | 4.64 | 4 | -2.45 | 10 | 7.09 | 6 | 1 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Eagles | 3 | 3 | 1.772 | 6 | 0.98 | 10 | -5.87 | 3 | 6.85 | 10 | 4 |
| 7 | Green Bay Packers | 6 | 0 | -2.557 | 27 | 1.59 | 8 | -3.94 | 6 | 5.53 | 7 | - |
| 8 | Buffalo Bills | 3 | 3 | 1.037 | 10 | 1.47 | 9 | -2.40 | 11 | 3.87 | 5 | (3) |
| 9 | Denver Broncos | 6 | 0 | -2.945 | 30 | -1.75 | 19 | -5.50 | 4 | 3.75 | 8 | (1) |
| 10 | Atlanta Falcons | 5 | 1 | -0.649 | 23 | 5.69 | 3 | 2.12 | 22 | 3.57 | 3 | (7) |
| 11 | Carolina Panthers | 5 | 0 | -4.877 | 32 | 0.35 | 13 | -2.98 | 7 | 3.33 | 12 | 1 |
| 12 | Seattle Seahawks | 2 | 4 | 0.144 | 17 | -0.54 | 17 | -2.89 | 8 | 2.35 | 13 | 1 |
| 13 | New York Giants | 3 | 3 | 1.026 | 11 | -0.37 | 16 | 0.16 | 18 | -0.54 | 11 | (2) |
| 14 | St. Louis Rams | 2 | 3 | 4.504 | 1 | -3.54 | 28 | -2.75 | 9 | -0.79 | 14 | - |
| 15 | San Diego Chargers | 2 | 4 | 1.818 | 5 | 1.63 | 7 | 2.52 | 24 | -0.89 | 20 | 5 |
| 16 | Washington Redskins | 2 | 4 | 2.937 | 4 | -1.47 | 18 | -0.49 | 15 | -0.98 | 18 | 2 |
| 17 | Minnesota Vikings | 3 | 2 | -2.373 | 26 | -6.27 | 32 | -5.18 | 5 | -1.10 | 23 | 6 |
| 18 | New Orleans Saints | 2 | 4 | 1.640 | 7 | -0.33 | 15 | 0.93 | 20 | -1.26 | 25 | 7 |
| 19 | Dallas Cowboys | 2 | 3 | 3.884 | 2 | -2.56 | 22 | -0.98 | 14 | -1.59 | 17 | (2) |
| 20 | Baltimore Ravens | 1 | 5 | 1.298 | 9 | 1.66 | 6 | 3.52 | 28 | -1.87 | 15 | (5) |
| 21 | Indianapolis Colts | 3 | 3 | 0.723 | 12 | -2.40 | 21 | -0.33 | 16 | -2.07 | 22 | 1 |
| 22 | Cleveland Browns | 2 | 4 | 0.482 | 14 | 0.77 | 11 | 2.94 | 26 | -2.17 | 19 | (3) |
| 23 | Kansas City Chiefs | 1 | 5 | 0.183 | 16 | 0.09 | 14 | 2.75 | 25 | -2.66 | 21 | (2) |
| 24 | Miami Dolphins | 2 | 3 | -0.210 | 20 | -2.82 | 25 | 0.07 | 17 | -2.89 | 32 | 8 |
| 25 | Oakland Raiders | 2 | 3 | -0.196 | 19 | -2.77 | 24 | 0.61 | 19 | -3.38 | 24 | (1) |
| 26 | San Francisco 49ers | 2 | 4 | 2.941 | 3 | -4.31 | 30 | 1.26 | 21 | -5.57 | 26 | - |
| 27 | Tennessee Titans | 1 | 4 | -2.630 | 28 | -2.70 | 23 | 3.45 | 27 | -6.15 | 16 | (11) |
| 28 | Houston Texans | 2 | 4 | -2.821 | 29 | -4.10 | 29 | 2.28 | 23 | -6.39 | 29 | 1 |
| 29 | Detroit Lions | 1 | 5 | 0.649 | 13 | -1.91 | 20 | 4.59 | 30 | -6.50 | 27 | (2) |
| 30 | Chicago Bears | 2 | 4 | 0.482 | 15 | -3.05 | 26 | 4.73 | 31 | -7.79 | 28 | (2) |
| 31 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 1 | 5 | -1.185 | 24 | -5.25 | 31 | 3.96 | 29 | -9.21 | 30 | (1) |
| 32 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2 | 3 | -3.935 | 31 | -3.36 | 27 | 6.53 | 32 | -9.88 | 31 | (1) |
Notable Rankings
- Biggest Climb - Dolphins, moving up 8 spots to #24
- Deepest Fall - Titans, dropping 11 spots to #27
- Highest Loser - Seahawks at #12
- Lowest Winner - Vikings at #17
- Most Neutral – Giants (#13) with a SCOAR of -0.54
Week 7 SCOAR predictions
I do not recommend using these for betting purposes (although you're more than welcome to send me money if they help you).
A reminder that SCOAR doesn't know what a normal football score looks like, so it's bound to put up some very unlikely point totals.
| Seattle Seahawks | 23 | Buffalo Bills | 28 | |
| San Francisco 49ers | 17 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 19 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 19 | Atlanta Falcons | 31 | |
| Washington Redskins | 29 | Tennessee Titans | 24 | |
| New Orleans Saints | 22 | Minnesota Vikings | 22 | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 25 | Detroit Lions | 16 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 25 | Cleveland Browns | 21 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 17 | St. Louis Rams | 23 | |
| Houston Texans | 18 | New York Jets | 23 | |
| Miami Dolphins | 24 | New England Patriots | 28 | |
| Oakland Raiders | 22 | Dallas Cowboys | 19 | |
| San Diego Chargers | 26 | New York Giants | 26 | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 19 | Baltimore Ravens | 20 | |
| Carolina Panthers | 21 | Arizona Cardinals | 37 |