clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

SCOAR: Week 7 Rankings & Predictions

Jets unseat the Patriots at the top, Seahawks move to 12th.

Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Despite another disappointing loss, the Seahawks’ SCOAR rebounded slightly this week, moving them up one position and distancing them from neutral. They will look to further improve this week while facing the 26th ranked 49ers on Thursday.

For those of you who still aren't familiar with SCOAR...

SCOAR (SCaled Opponent-Adjusted point Ratio) is explained in detail here, but I'll provide a quick recap. Opponent-adjusted point ratio is the ratio of a team's points to the average points of that team's opponents, normalized with a logarithm. This value is calculated for a team's points for and points allowed then combined for a total rating. These results are then scaled using the average points scored across the league in order to give a result that corresponds directly to points.

Looking Back

SCOAR had a rough week making predictions, only managing an 8-6 record straight up and a miserable 4-10 against the spread. On 5 of those losses, the SCOAR prediction was within 1.5 points of the spread, just unfortunately on the wrong side. The season total now stands at 58-33 (0.637) straight up and 41-41-6 (0.500) ATS.

Game Predicted Actual Game Predicted Actual
Atlanta Falcons 34 21 Washington Redskins 9 20
New Orleans Saints 22 31 New York Jets 23 34
Arizona Cardinals 29 13 Kansas City Chiefs 20 10
Pittsburgh Steelers 23 25 Minnesota Vikings 26 16
Cincinnati Bengals 26 34 Chicago Bears 19 34
Buffalo Bills 24 21 Detroit Lions 23 37
Denver Broncos 23 26 Houston Texans 22 31
Cleveland Browns 18 23 Jacksonville Jaguars 23 20
Miami Dolphins 15 38 Carolina Panthers 20 27
Tennessee Titans 29 10 Seattle Seahawks 21 23
San Diego Chargers 17 20 Baltimore Ravens 27 20
Green Bay Packers 31 27 San Francisco 49ers 22 25
New England Patriots 34 34 New York Giants 22 7
Indianapolis Colts 18 27 Philadelphia Eagles 24 27

Highs & Lows

  • Week 6 Best Single Game SCOAR – Philadelphia Eagles: 32.80
  • Week 6 Worst Single Game SCOAR – Tennessee Titans: -30.91
  • Season Best Single Game SCOAR – Seattle Seahawks: 69.21 (week 3)
  • Season Worst Single Game SCOAR – Chicago Bears: -76.91 (week 3)

On to the Numbers!

The New York Jets (11.42) take the top spot after an impressive start to the season. This drops the Patriots to 2nd with a SCOAR of 10.79. The Steelers are a surprise addition to the top five, pulling out wins despite Roethlisberger’s absence on their way to a rating of 8.07. The Cardinals (7.55) and Bengals (7.09) round out the top five. The Seahawks moved up one spot in the rankings, now coming in at 12th. I've added strength of schedule to the chart, it is simply the average SCOAR of opponents.

Team W L SOS SOS Rank O-SCOAR O Rank D-SCOAR D Rank SCOAR Last Week Change
1 New York Jets 4 1 -0.252 21 2.80 5 -8.63 1 11.42 2 1
2 New England Patriots 5 0 -0.187 18 9.61 1 -1.19 12 10.79 1 (1)
3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4 2 1.539 8 0.35 12 -7.72 2 8.07 9 6
4 Arizona Cardinals 4 2 -2.308 25 6.57 2 -0.98 13 7.55 4 -
5 Cincinnati Bengals 6 0 -0.427 22 4.64 4 -2.45 10 7.09 6 1
6 Philadelphia Eagles 3 3 1.772 6 0.98 10 -5.87 3 6.85 10 4
7 Green Bay Packers 6 0 -2.557 27 1.59 8 -3.94 6 5.53 7 -
8 Buffalo Bills 3 3 1.037 10 1.47 9 -2.40 11 3.87 5 (3)
9 Denver Broncos 6 0 -2.945 30 -1.75 19 -5.50 4 3.75 8 (1)
10 Atlanta Falcons 5 1 -0.649 23 5.69 3 2.12 22 3.57 3 (7)
11 Carolina Panthers 5 0 -4.877 32 0.35 13 -2.98 7 3.33 12 1
12 Seattle Seahawks 2 4 0.144 17 -0.54 17 -2.89 8 2.35 13 1
13 New York Giants 3 3 1.026 11 -0.37 16 0.16 18 -0.54 11 (2)
14 St. Louis Rams 2 3 4.504 1 -3.54 28 -2.75 9 -0.79 14 -
15 San Diego Chargers 2 4 1.818 5 1.63 7 2.52 24 -0.89 20 5
16 Washington Redskins 2 4 2.937 4 -1.47 18 -0.49 15 -0.98 18 2
17 Minnesota Vikings 3 2 -2.373 26 -6.27 32 -5.18 5 -1.10 23 6
18 New Orleans Saints 2 4 1.640 7 -0.33 15 0.93 20 -1.26 25 7
19 Dallas Cowboys 2 3 3.884 2 -2.56 22 -0.98 14 -1.59 17 (2)
20 Baltimore Ravens 1 5 1.298 9 1.66 6 3.52 28 -1.87 15 (5)
21 Indianapolis Colts 3 3 0.723 12 -2.40 21 -0.33 16 -2.07 22 1
22 Cleveland Browns 2 4 0.482 14 0.77 11 2.94 26 -2.17 19 (3)
23 Kansas City Chiefs 1 5 0.183 16 0.09 14 2.75 25 -2.66 21 (2)
24 Miami Dolphins 2 3 -0.210 20 -2.82 25 0.07 17 -2.89 32 8
25 Oakland Raiders 2 3 -0.196 19 -2.77 24 0.61 19 -3.38 24 (1)
26 San Francisco 49ers 2 4 2.941 3 -4.31 30 1.26 21 -5.57 26 -
27 Tennessee Titans 1 4 -2.630 28 -2.70 23 3.45 27 -6.15 16 (11)
28 Houston Texans 2 4 -2.821 29 -4.10 29 2.28 23 -6.39 29 1
29 Detroit Lions 1 5 0.649 13 -1.91 20 4.59 30 -6.50 27 (2)
30 Chicago Bears 2 4 0.482 15 -3.05 26 4.73 31 -7.79 28 (2)
31 Jacksonville Jaguars 1 5 -1.185 24 -5.25 31 3.96 29 -9.21 30 (1)
32 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2 3 -3.935 31 -3.36 27 6.53 32 -9.88 31 (1)

Notable Rankings

  • Biggest Climb - Dolphins, moving up 8 spots to #24
  • Deepest Fall - Titans, dropping 11 spots to #27
  • Highest Loser - Seahawks at #12
  • Lowest Winner - Vikings at #17
  • Most Neutral – Giants (#13) with a SCOAR of -0.54

Week 7 SCOAR predictions

I do not recommend using these for betting purposes (although you're more than welcome to send me money if they help you).

A reminder that SCOAR doesn't know what a normal football score looks like, so it's bound to put up some very unlikely point totals.

Seattle Seahawks 23 Buffalo Bills 28
San Francisco 49ers 17 Jacksonville Jaguars 19
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 Atlanta Falcons 31
Washington Redskins 29 Tennessee Titans 24
New Orleans Saints 22 Minnesota Vikings 22
Indianapolis Colts 25 Detroit Lions 16
Pittsburgh Steelers 25 Cleveland Browns 21
Kansas City Chiefs 17 St. Louis Rams 23
Houston Texans 18 New York Jets 23
Miami Dolphins 24 New England Patriots 28
Oakland Raiders 22 Dallas Cowboys 19
San Diego Chargers 26 New York Giants 26
Philadelphia Eagles 19 Baltimore Ravens 20
Carolina Panthers 21 Arizona Cardinals 37