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The Seahawks are slowly creeping back up the rankings, moving up two spots this week to rejoin the top 10. They have another solid chance to increase their rating this week, facing off against the 22nd ranked Cowboys. The four losses this season have come at the hands of teams ranked 3rd, 5th, 6th, and 13th. It has been a relatively difficult schedule to this point, hopefully the Seahawks can take care of business against lesser opponents the rest of the way.
For those of you who still aren't familiar with SCOAR...
SCOAR (SCaled Opponent-Adjusted point Ratio) is explained in detail here, but I'll provide a quick recap. Opponent-adjusted point ratio is the ratio of a team's points to the average points of that team's opponents, normalized with a logarithm. This value is calculated for a team's points for and points allowed then combined for a total rating. These results are then scaled using the average points scored across the league in order to give a result that corresponds directly to points.
Looking Back
SCOAR had mixed results picking games last week, with a straight up record of 10-4 and an against the spread record of only 4-9-1. The season total now stands at 68-37 (0.648) straight up and 45-50-7 (0.474) ATS. I'm still holding out hope that those ATS picks will rebound and bring the season total more in line with last year's results.
Game Predicted Actual Game Predicted Actual
Seattle Seahawks
23
20
Buffalo Bills
28
31
San Francisco 49ers
17
3
Jacksonville Jaguars
19
34
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
19
30
Atlanta Falcons
31
10
Washington Redskins
29
31
Tennessee Titans
24
7
New Orleans Saints
22
27
Minnesota Vikings
22
28
Indianapolis Colts
25
21
Detroit Lions
16
19
Pittsburgh Steelers
25
13
Cleveland Browns
21
6
Kansas City Chiefs
17
23
St. Louis Rams
23
24
Houston Texans
18
26
New York Jets
23
23
Miami Dolphins
24
44
New England Patriots
28
30
Oakland Raiders
22
37
Dallas Cowboys
19
20
San Diego Chargers
26
29
New York Giants
26
27
Philadelphia Eagles
19
16
Baltimore Ravens
20
18
Carolina Panthers
21
27
Arizona Cardinals
37
26
Highs & Lows
- Week 7 Best Single Game SCOAR - Seattle Seahawks: 40.57
- Week 7 Worst Single Game SCOAR - San Francisco 49ers: -49.27
- Season Best Single Game SCOAR - Seattle Seahawks: 68.82 (week 3)
- Season Worst Single Game SCOAR - Chicago Bears: -73.83 (week 3)
On to the Numbers!
After securing the victory in a battle between the top two teams last week, the Patriots return to first place with a SCOAR of 11.16. The Jets (9.90) don't fall too far, only dropping to second. The Bengals continued their undefeated start and moved up into third place at 7.83. The Cardinals hold serve at 4th (7.53) after a meh victory over the middling Ravens. Making their way into the top five this week are the Packers, posting a 6.59 rating.
Team W L SOS O-SCOAR O Rank D-SCOAR D Rank SCOAR Last Week Change
1
New England Patriots
6
0
0.62
9.51
1
-1.65
11
11.16
2
1
2
New York Jets
4
2
0.97
2.21
6
-7.69
1
9.90
1
(1)
3
Cincinnati Bengals
6
0
-0.12
4.78
3
-3.05
10
7.83
5
2
4
Arizona Cardinals
5
2
-2.37
6.15
2
-1.37
12
7.53
4
-
5
Green Bay Packers
6
0
-2.00
2.63
5
-3.96
9
6.59
7
2
6
Carolina Panthers
6
0
-2.30
1.47
9
-4.64
7
6.10
11
5
7
Philadelphia Eagles
3
4
1.95
0.54
11
-4.75
6
5.29
6
(1)
8
Pittsburgh Steelers
4
3
1.19
-1.05
19
-5.92
2
4.87
3
(5)
9
Denver Broncos
6
0
-2.68
-1.54
21
-5.64
3
4.10
9
-
10
Seattle Seahawks
3
4
0.21
-0.82
17
-4.80
5
3.98
12
2
11
Atlanta Falcons
6
1
-1.70
2.94
4
-0.42
14
3.36
10
(1)
12
Buffalo Bills
3
4
0.31
1.63
8
-0.40
15
2.03
8
(4)
13
St. Louis Rams
3
3
2.77
-3.01
27
-4.89
4
1.89
14
1
14
Miami Dolphins
3
3
-1.26
-0.07
14
0.44
19
-0.51
24
10
15
Kansas City Chiefs
2
5
1.31
0.28
12
0.82
21
-0.54
23
8
16
Minnesota Vikings
4
2
-3.15
-4.85
30
-4.29
8
-0.56
17
1
17
New York Giants
4
3
-0.49
-0.30
15
0.65
20
-0.96
13
(4)
18
New Orleans Saints
3
4
1.10
0.23
13
1.35
23
-1.12
18
-
19
Washington Redskins
3
4
1.51
-0.82
18
0.37
18
-1.19
16
(3)
20
Baltimore Ravens
1
6
1.22
1.30
10
2.56
25
-1.26
20
-
21
San Diego Chargers
2
5
0.72
1.77
7
4.15
28
-2.38
15
(6)
22
Dallas Cowboys
2
4
2.80
-2.21
24
0.23
16
-2.45
19
(3)
23
Oakland Raiders
3
3
-0.63
-0.68
16
1.89
24
-2.56
25
2
24
Indianapolis Colts
3
4
0.52
-3.50
29
0.30
17
-3.80
21
(3)
25
Tennessee Titans
1
5
-2.07
-5.34
31
-0.58
13
-4.75
27
2
26
Cleveland Browns
2
5
0.71
-1.70
23
3.45
26
-5.15
22
(4)
27
Detroit Lions
1
6
0.75
-1.21
20
4.80
31
-6.01
29
2
28
Houston Texans
2
5
-1.51
-2.49
26
4.24
29
-6.73
28
-
29
Jacksonville Jaguars
2
5
-0.02
-3.38
28
3.45
27
-6.83
31
2
30
Chicago Bears
2
4
1.50
-2.35
25
4.54
30
-6.90
30
-
31
San Francisco 49ers
2
5
2.89
-6.99
32
1.05
22
-8.04
26
(5)
32
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2
4
-2.42
-1.61
22
6.76
32
-8.36
32
-
Notable Rankings
- Biggest Climb - Dolphins, moving up 10 spots to #14
- Deepest Fall - Chargers, dropping 6 spots to #21
- Highest Loser - Eagles at #7
- Lowest Winner - Giants at #17
- Most Neutral - Dolphins (#14) with a SCOAR of -0.51
Week 8 SCOAR predictions
I do not recommend using these for betting purposes (although you're more than welcome to send me money if they help you).
A reminder that SCOAR doesn't know what a normal football score looks like, so it's bound to put up some very unlikely point totals.
Miami Dolphins
20
Detroit Lions
21
New England Patriots
36
Kansas City Chiefs
29
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
20
Arizona Cardinals
33
Atlanta Falcons
35
Cleveland Browns
20
San Francisco 49ers
10
New York Giants
24
St. Louis Rams
22
New Orleans Saints
25
Minnesota Vikings
24
San Diego Chargers
26
Chicago Bears
17
Baltimore Ravens
30
Cincinnati Bengals
22
Tennessee Titans
22
Pittsburgh Steelers
21
Houston Texans
23
New York Jets
26
Seattle Seahawks
22
Oakland Raiders
18
Dallas Cowboys
17
Green Bay Packers
19
Indianapolis Colts
14
Denver Broncos
19
Carolina Panthers
28