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SCOAR: Week 8 Rankings & Predictions

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Patriots reclaim top spot after defeating the Jets. The Seahawks join the top 10.

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The Seahawks are slowly creeping back up the rankings, moving up two spots this week to rejoin the top 10. They have another solid chance to increase their rating this week, facing off against the 22nd ranked Cowboys. The four losses this season have come at the hands of teams ranked 3rd, 5th, 6th, and 13th. It has been a relatively difficult schedule to this point, hopefully the Seahawks can take care of business against lesser opponents the rest of the way.

For those of you who still aren't familiar with SCOAR...

SCOAR (SCaled Opponent-Adjusted point Ratio) is explained in detail here, but I'll provide a quick recap. Opponent-adjusted point ratio is the ratio of a team's points to the average points of that team's opponents, normalized with a logarithm. This value is calculated for a team's points for and points allowed then combined for a total rating. These results are then scaled using the average points scored across the league in order to give a result that corresponds directly to points.

Looking Back

SCOAR had mixed results picking games last week, with a straight up record of 10-4 and an against the spread record of only 4-9-1. The season total now stands at 68-37 (0.648) straight up and 45-50-7 (0.474) ATS. I'm still holding out hope that those ATS picks will rebound and bring the season total more in line with last year's results.

Game Predicted Actual Game Predicted Actual
Seattle Seahawks 23 20 Buffalo Bills 28 31
San Francisco 49ers 17 3 Jacksonville Jaguars 19 34
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 30 Atlanta Falcons 31 10
Washington Redskins 29 31 Tennessee Titans 24 7
New Orleans Saints 22 27 Minnesota Vikings 22 28
Indianapolis Colts 25 21 Detroit Lions 16 19
Pittsburgh Steelers 25 13 Cleveland Browns 21 6
Kansas City Chiefs 17 23 St. Louis Rams 23 24
Houston Texans 18 26 New York Jets 23 23
Miami Dolphins 24 44 New England Patriots 28 30
Oakland Raiders 22 37 Dallas Cowboys 19 20
San Diego Chargers 26 29 New York Giants 26 27
Philadelphia Eagles 19 16 Baltimore Ravens 20 18
Carolina Panthers 21 27 Arizona Cardinals 37 26

Highs & Lows

  • Week 7 Best Single Game SCOAR - Seattle Seahawks: 40.57
  • Week 7 Worst Single Game SCOAR - San Francisco 49ers: -49.27
  • Season Best Single Game SCOAR - Seattle Seahawks: 68.82 (week 3)
  • Season Worst Single Game SCOAR - Chicago Bears: -73.83 (week 3)

On to the Numbers!

After securing the victory in a battle between the top two teams last week, the Patriots return to first place with a SCOAR of 11.16. The Jets (9.90) don't fall too far, only dropping to second. The Bengals continued their undefeated start and moved up into third place at 7.83. The Cardinals hold serve at 4th (7.53) after a meh victory over the middling Ravens. Making their way into the top five this week are the Packers, posting a 6.59 rating.

Team W L SOS O-SCOAR O Rank D-SCOAR D Rank SCOAR Last Week Change
1 New England Patriots 6 0 0.62 9.51 1 -1.65 11 11.16 2 1
2 New York Jets 4 2 0.97 2.21 6 -7.69 1 9.90 1 (1)
3 Cincinnati Bengals 6 0 -0.12 4.78 3 -3.05 10 7.83 5 2
4 Arizona Cardinals 5 2 -2.37 6.15 2 -1.37 12 7.53 4 -
5 Green Bay Packers 6 0 -2.00 2.63 5 -3.96 9 6.59 7 2
6 Carolina Panthers 6 0 -2.30 1.47 9 -4.64 7 6.10 11 5
7 Philadelphia Eagles 3 4 1.95 0.54 11 -4.75 6 5.29 6 (1)
8 Pittsburgh Steelers 4 3 1.19 -1.05 19 -5.92 2 4.87 3 (5)
9 Denver Broncos 6 0 -2.68 -1.54 21 -5.64 3 4.10 9 -
10 Seattle Seahawks 3 4 0.21 -0.82 17 -4.80 5 3.98 12 2
11 Atlanta Falcons 6 1 -1.70 2.94 4 -0.42 14 3.36 10 (1)
12 Buffalo Bills 3 4 0.31 1.63 8 -0.40 15 2.03 8 (4)
13 St. Louis Rams 3 3 2.77 -3.01 27 -4.89 4 1.89 14 1
14 Miami Dolphins 3 3 -1.26 -0.07 14 0.44 19 -0.51 24 10
15 Kansas City Chiefs 2 5 1.31 0.28 12 0.82 21 -0.54 23 8
16 Minnesota Vikings 4 2 -3.15 -4.85 30 -4.29 8 -0.56 17 1
17 New York Giants 4 3 -0.49 -0.30 15 0.65 20 -0.96 13 (4)
18 New Orleans Saints 3 4 1.10 0.23 13 1.35 23 -1.12 18 -
19 Washington Redskins 3 4 1.51 -0.82 18 0.37 18 -1.19 16 (3)
20 Baltimore Ravens 1 6 1.22 1.30 10 2.56 25 -1.26 20 -
21 San Diego Chargers 2 5 0.72 1.77 7 4.15 28 -2.38 15 (6)
22 Dallas Cowboys 2 4 2.80 -2.21 24 0.23 16 -2.45 19 (3)
23 Oakland Raiders 3 3 -0.63 -0.68 16 1.89 24 -2.56 25 2
24 Indianapolis Colts 3 4 0.52 -3.50 29 0.30 17 -3.80 21 (3)
25 Tennessee Titans 1 5 -2.07 -5.34 31 -0.58 13 -4.75 27 2
26 Cleveland Browns 2 5 0.71 -1.70 23 3.45 26 -5.15 22 (4)
27 Detroit Lions 1 6 0.75 -1.21 20 4.80 31 -6.01 29 2
28 Houston Texans 2 5 -1.51 -2.49 26 4.24 29 -6.73 28 -
29 Jacksonville Jaguars 2 5 -0.02 -3.38 28 3.45 27 -6.83 31 2
30 Chicago Bears 2 4 1.50 -2.35 25 4.54 30 -6.90 30 -
31 San Francisco 49ers 2 5 2.89 -6.99 32 1.05 22 -8.04 26 (5)
32 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2 4 -2.42 -1.61 22 6.76 32 -8.36 32 -

Notable Rankings

  • Biggest Climb - Dolphins, moving up 10 spots to #14
  • Deepest Fall - Chargers, dropping 6 spots to #21
  • Highest Loser - Eagles at #7
  • Lowest Winner - Giants at #17
  • Most Neutral - Dolphins (#14) with a SCOAR of -0.51

Week 8 SCOAR predictions

I do not recommend using these for betting purposes (although you're more than welcome to send me money if they help you).

A reminder that SCOAR doesn't know what a normal football score looks like, so it's bound to put up some very unlikely point totals.

Miami Dolphins 20 Detroit Lions 21
New England Patriots 36 Kansas City Chiefs 29
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 Arizona Cardinals 33
Atlanta Falcons 35 Cleveland Browns 20
San Francisco 49ers 10 New York Giants 24
St. Louis Rams 22 New Orleans Saints 25
Minnesota Vikings 24 San Diego Chargers 26
Chicago Bears 17 Baltimore Ravens 30
Cincinnati Bengals 22 Tennessee Titans 22
Pittsburgh Steelers 21 Houston Texans 23
New York Jets 26 Seattle Seahawks 22
Oakland Raiders 18 Dallas Cowboys 17
Green Bay Packers 19 Indianapolis Colts 14
Denver Broncos 19 Carolina Panthers 28