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Another week in the books brings the first quarter of the season to a close. We only have one week of the 2014 season left in the formulas, so we will soon be relying solely on the current season’s results. This transition (and an underwhelming win over the Lions) dropped the Seahawks significantly as the 35-6 victory over the Cardinals in week 16 was wiped out. Coming up, the Seahawks face a stiff challenge, playing at the 8th ranked Bengals.
For those of you who still aren't familiar with SCOAR...
SCOAR (SCaled Opponent-Adjusted point Ratio) is explained in detail here, but I'll provide a quick recap. Opponent-adjusted point ratio is the ratio of a team's points to the average points of that team's opponents, normalized with a logarithm. This value is calculated for a team's points for and points allowed then combined for a total rating. These results are then scaled using the average points scored across the league in order to give a result that corresponds directly to points.
Looking Back
SCOAR took a step back this week, only mustering an 9-6 straight up record and an even less impressive 7-8 record against the spread. This brings the season total to 38-25 (0.603) straight up and 34-29 (0.540) ATS.
| Game | Predicted | Actual | Game | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 12 | 23 | New York Jets | 28 | 27 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 26 | 20 | Miami Dolphins | 18 | 14 | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 18 | 13 | New York Giants | 23 | 24 | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 22 | 16 | Buffalo Bills | 32 | 10 | |
| Carolina Panthers | 25 | 37 | Philadelphia Eagles | 24 | 20 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5 | 23 | Washington Redskins | 19 | 23 | |
| Oakland Raiders | 26 | 20 | Houston Texans | 20 | 21 | |
| Chicago Bears | 23 | 22 | Atlanta Falcons | 23 | 48 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 21 | 21 | Cleveland Browns | 19 | 27 | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 28 | 36 | San Diego Chargers | 22 | 30 | |
| Green Bay Packers | 32 | 17 | St. Louis Rams | 16 | 24 | |
| San Francisco 49ers | 20 | 3 | Arizona Cardinals | 30 | 22 | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 15 | 20 | Dallas Cowboys | 33 | 20 | |
| Denver Broncos | 28 | 23 | New Orleans Saints | 18 | 26 | |
| Detroit Lions | 9 | 10 | ||||
| Seattle Seahawks | 29 | 13 |
Highs & Lows
- Week 4 Best Single Game SCOAR – Green Bay Packers: 41.93
- Week 4 Worst Single Game SCOAR – San Francisco 49ers: -45.84
- Season Best Single Game SCOAR – Seattle Seahawks: 67.32 (week 3)
- Season Worst Single Game SCOAR – Chicago Bears: -74.58 (week 3)
On to the Numbers!
The top two teams remain the same this week, although with lower SCOARs than in week 4. The Patriots lead at 10.39, with the Panthers in 2nd at 9.82. Next up we have a couple newcomers to the top five – the Broncos (8.96) moved up to third and the Bills are now in fourth place with a rating of 7.49. Rounding out the top five are the Steelers at 6.43. No surprises at the bottom of the chart as the Bears, Bucs, and Jags are comfortably bringing up the rear.
| Team | W | L | O-SCOAR | O Rank | D-SCOAR | D Rank | SCOAR | Last Week | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New England Patriots | 3 | 0 | 9.32 | 1 | -1.06 | 15 | 10.39 | 1 | - |
| 2 | Carolina Panthers | 4 | 0 | 2.13 | 11 | -7.69 | 1 | 9.82 | 2 | - |
| 3 | Denver Broncos | 4 | 0 | 3.78 | 5 | -5.18 | 3 | 8.96 | 6 | 3 |
| 4 | Buffalo Bills | 2 | 2 | 2.26 | 9 | -5.23 | 2 | 7.49 | 9 | 5 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 2 | 2 | 2.01 | 12 | -4.41 | 5 | 6.43 | 5 | - |
| 6 | New York Jets | 3 | 1 | 1.67 | 13 | -4.59 | 4 | 6.27 | 7 | 1 |
| 7 | Atlanta Falcons | 4 | 0 | 5.66 | 3 | 0.50 | 19 | 5.16 | 12 | 5 |
| 8 | Cincinnati Bengals | 4 | 0 | 2.35 | 8 | -2.04 | 11 | 4.39 | 10 | 2 |
| 9 | Green Bay Packers | 4 | 0 | 3.96 | 4 | -0.09 | 17 | 4.05 | 8 | (1) |
| 10 | New York Giants | 2 | 2 | 2.19 | 10 | -1.24 | 14 | 3.44 | 15 | 5 |
| 11 | Dallas Cowboys | 2 | 2 | 3.26 | 6 | 0.23 | 18 | 3.03 | 4 | (7) |
| 12 | Arizona Cardinals | 3 | 1 | 6.29 | 2 | 3.30 | 27 | 2.99 | 14 | 2 |
| 13 | Seattle Seahawks | 2 | 2 | -1.56 | 19 | -4.32 | 6 | 2.76 | 3 | (10) |
| 14 | Philadelphia Eagles | 1 | 3 | -0.11 | 16 | -2.81 | 9 | 2.69 | 13 | (1) |
| 15 | Baltimore Ravens | 1 | 3 | 0.36 | 15 | -1.56 | 13 | 1.92 | 17 | 2 |
| 16 | Kansas City Chiefs | 1 | 3 | 2.53 | 7 | 1.13 | 21 | 1.40 | 11 | (5) |
| 17 | Indianapolis Colts | 2 | 2 | -3.19 | 23 | -2.90 | 8 | -0.29 | 21 | 4 |
| 18 | New Orleans Saints | 1 | 3 | -0.81 | 18 | -0.36 | 16 | -0.45 | 29 | 11 |
| 19 | St. Louis Rams | 2 | 2 | -3.26 | 24 | -2.06 | 10 | -1.20 | 18 | (1) |
| 20 | Minnesota Vikings | 2 | 2 | -5.88 | 30 | -3.46 | 7 | -2.42 | 23 | 3 |
| 21 | Detroit Lions | 0 | 4 | -1.63 | 20 | 1.49 | 22 | -3.12 | 24 | 3 |
| 22 | San Francisco 49ers | 1 | 3 | -6.40 | 31 | -1.86 | 12 | -4.55 | 20 | (2) |
| 23 | Tennessee Titans | 1 | 2 | 1.27 | 14 | 6.81 | 31 | -5.54 | 31 | 8 |
| 24 | Houston Texans | 1 | 3 | -4.23 | 25 | 2.01 | 23 | -6.24 | 16 | (8) |
| 25 | San Diego Chargers | 2 | 2 | -2.13 | 21 | 4.39 | 29 | -6.52 | 28 | 3 |
| 26 | Cleveland Browns | 1 | 3 | -5.54 | 28 | 1.04 | 20 | -6.58 | 25 | (1) |
| 27 | Oakland Raiders | 2 | 2 | -0.25 | 17 | 7.08 | 32 | -7.33 | 19 | (8) |
| 28 | Washington Redskins | 2 | 2 | -5.02 | 26 | 2.60 | 26 | -7.63 | 26 | (2) |
| 29 | Miami Dolphins | 1 | 3 | -3.17 | 22 | 4.53 | 30 | -7.69 | 22 | (7) |
| 30 | Chicago Bears | 1 | 3 | -5.82 | 29 | 2.47 | 25 | -8.28 | 30 | - |
| 31 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1 | 3 | -5.14 | 27 | 4.12 | 28 | -9.25 | 32 | 1 |
| 32 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 1 | 3 | -7.44 | 32 | 2.19 | 24 | -9.64 | 27 | (5) |
Notable Rankings
- Biggest Climb - Saints, moving up 11 spots to #18
- Deepest Fall - Seahawks, dropping 10 spots to #13
- Highest Loser - Eagles at #14
- Lowest Winner - Cardinals at #12
- Most Neutral – Colts (#17) with a SCOAR of -0.29
Week 5 SCOAR predictions
I do not recommend using these for betting purposes (although you're more than welcome to send me money if they help you).
A reminder that SCOAR doesn't know what a normal football score looks like, so it's bound to put up some very unlikely point totals.
| Indianapolis Colts | 20 | Chicago Bears | 17 | |
| Houston Texans | 18 | Kansas City Chiefs | 30 | |
| Seattle Seahawks | 18 | Washington Redskins | 18 | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 22 | Atlanta Falcons | 32 | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 19 | New Orleans Saints | 19 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 22 | Philadelphia Eagles | 25 | |
| Cleveland Browns | 16 | St. Louis Rams | 14 | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 26 | Green Bay Packers | 28 | |
| Buffalo Bills | 29 | Arizona Cardinals | 31 | |
| Tennessee Titans | 22 | Detroit Lions | 20 | |
| New England Patriots | 31 | Denver Broncos | 34 | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 27 | Oakland Raiders | 18 | |
| San Francisco 49ers | 13 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 27 | |
| New York Giants | 27 | San Diego Chargers | 18 |