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SCOAR: Week 5 Rankings & Predictions

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Only one more week until we're completely over the 2014 season.

Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Another week in the books brings the first quarter of the season to a close. We only have one week of the 2014 season left in the formulas, so we will soon be relying solely on the current season’s results. This transition (and an underwhelming win over the Lions) dropped the Seahawks significantly as the 35-6 victory over the Cardinals in week 16 was wiped out. Coming up, the Seahawks face a stiff challenge, playing at the 8th ranked Bengals.

For those of you who still aren't familiar with SCOAR...

SCOAR (SCaled Opponent-Adjusted point Ratio) is explained in detail here, but I'll provide a quick recap. Opponent-adjusted point ratio is the ratio of a team's points to the average points of that team's opponents, normalized with a logarithm. This value is calculated for a team's points for and points allowed then combined for a total rating. These results are then scaled using the average points scored across the league in order to give a result that corresponds directly to points.

Looking Back

SCOAR took a step back this week, only mustering an 9-6 straight up record and an even less impressive 7-8 record against the spread. This brings the season total to 38-25 (0.603) straight up and 34-29 (0.540) ATS.

Game Predicted Actual Game Predicted Actual
Baltimore Ravens 12 23 New York Jets 28 27
Pittsburgh Steelers 26 20 Miami Dolphins 18 14
Jacksonville Jaguars 18 13 New York Giants 23 24
Indianapolis Colts 22 16 Buffalo Bills 32 10
Carolina Panthers 25 37 Philadelphia Eagles 24 20
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5 23 Washington Redskins 19 23
Oakland Raiders 26 20 Houston Texans 20 21
Chicago Bears 23 22 Atlanta Falcons 23 48
Kansas City Chiefs 21 21 Cleveland Browns 19 27
Cincinnati Bengals 28 36 San Diego Chargers 22 30
Green Bay Packers 32 17 St. Louis Rams 16 24
San Francisco 49ers 20 3 Arizona Cardinals 30 22
Minnesota Vikings 15 20 Dallas Cowboys 33 20
Denver Broncos 28 23 New Orleans Saints 18 26
Detroit Lions 9 10
Seattle Seahawks 29 13

Highs & Lows

  • Week 4 Best Single Game SCOAR – Green Bay Packers: 41.93
  • Week 4 Worst Single Game SCOAR – San Francisco 49ers: -45.84
  • Season Best Single Game SCOAR – Seattle Seahawks: 67.32 (week 3)
  • Season Worst Single Game SCOAR – Chicago Bears: -74.58 (week 3)

On to the Numbers!

The top two teams remain the same this week, although with lower SCOARs than in week 4. The Patriots lead at 10.39, with the Panthers in 2nd at 9.82. Next up we have a couple newcomers to the top five – the Broncos (8.96) moved up to third and the Bills are now in fourth place with a rating of 7.49. Rounding out the top five are the Steelers at 6.43. No surprises at the bottom of the chart as the Bears, Bucs, and Jags are comfortably bringing up the rear.

Team W L O-SCOAR O Rank D-SCOAR D Rank SCOAR Last Week Change
1 New England Patriots 3 0 9.32 1 -1.06 15 10.39 1 -
2 Carolina Panthers 4 0 2.13 11 -7.69 1 9.82 2 -
3 Denver Broncos 4 0 3.78 5 -5.18 3 8.96 6 3
4 Buffalo Bills 2 2 2.26 9 -5.23 2 7.49 9 5
5 Pittsburgh Steelers 2 2 2.01 12 -4.41 5 6.43 5 -
6 New York Jets 3 1 1.67 13 -4.59 4 6.27 7 1
7 Atlanta Falcons 4 0 5.66 3 0.50 19 5.16 12 5
8 Cincinnati Bengals 4 0 2.35 8 -2.04 11 4.39 10 2
9 Green Bay Packers 4 0 3.96 4 -0.09 17 4.05 8 (1)
10 New York Giants 2 2 2.19 10 -1.24 14 3.44 15 5
11 Dallas Cowboys 2 2 3.26 6 0.23 18 3.03 4 (7)
12 Arizona Cardinals 3 1 6.29 2 3.30 27 2.99 14 2
13 Seattle Seahawks 2 2 -1.56 19 -4.32 6 2.76 3 (10)
14 Philadelphia Eagles 1 3 -0.11 16 -2.81 9 2.69 13 (1)
15 Baltimore Ravens 1 3 0.36 15 -1.56 13 1.92 17 2
16 Kansas City Chiefs 1 3 2.53 7 1.13 21 1.40 11 (5)
17 Indianapolis Colts 2 2 -3.19 23 -2.90 8 -0.29 21 4
18 New Orleans Saints 1 3 -0.81 18 -0.36 16 -0.45 29 11
19 St. Louis Rams 2 2 -3.26 24 -2.06 10 -1.20 18 (1)
20 Minnesota Vikings 2 2 -5.88 30 -3.46 7 -2.42 23 3
21 Detroit Lions 0 4 -1.63 20 1.49 22 -3.12 24 3
22 San Francisco 49ers 1 3 -6.40 31 -1.86 12 -4.55 20 (2)
23 Tennessee Titans 1 2 1.27 14 6.81 31 -5.54 31 8
24 Houston Texans 1 3 -4.23 25 2.01 23 -6.24 16 (8)
25 San Diego Chargers 2 2 -2.13 21 4.39 29 -6.52 28 3
26 Cleveland Browns 1 3 -5.54 28 1.04 20 -6.58 25 (1)
27 Oakland Raiders 2 2 -0.25 17 7.08 32 -7.33 19 (8)
28 Washington Redskins 2 2 -5.02 26 2.60 26 -7.63 26 (2)
29 Miami Dolphins 1 3 -3.17 22 4.53 30 -7.69 22 (7)
30 Chicago Bears 1 3 -5.82 29 2.47 25 -8.28 30 -
31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1 3 -5.14 27 4.12 28 -9.25 32 1
32 Jacksonville Jaguars 1 3 -7.44 32 2.19 24 -9.64 27 (5)

Notable Rankings

  • Biggest Climb - Saints, moving up 11 spots to #18
  • Deepest Fall - Seahawks, dropping 10 spots to #13
  • Highest Loser - Eagles at #14
  • Lowest Winner - Cardinals at #12
  • Most Neutral – Colts (#17) with a SCOAR of -0.29

Week 5 SCOAR predictions

I do not recommend using these for betting purposes (although you're more than welcome to send me money if they help you).

A reminder that SCOAR doesn't know what a normal football score looks like, so it's bound to put up some very unlikely point totals.

Indianapolis Colts 20 Chicago Bears 17
Houston Texans 18 Kansas City Chiefs 30
Seattle Seahawks 18 Washington Redskins 18
Cincinnati Bengals 22 Atlanta Falcons 32
Jacksonville Jaguars 19 New Orleans Saints 19
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22 Philadelphia Eagles 25
Cleveland Browns 16 St. Louis Rams 14
Baltimore Ravens 26 Green Bay Packers 28
Buffalo Bills 29 Arizona Cardinals 31
Tennessee Titans 22 Detroit Lions 20
New England Patriots 31 Denver Broncos 34
Dallas Cowboys 27 Oakland Raiders 18
San Francisco 49ers 13 Pittsburgh Steelers 27
New York Giants 27 San Diego Chargers 18