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Seattle squeaked by the Cowboys, holding Dallas to field goals while scoring just enough to take home the W. The lackluster performance earned a rare negative SCOAR in a victory and contributed to a one position drop in the rankings. The Seahawks have a chance to rest up on their off week before a three game home stretch against the 4th ranked Cardinals, 32nd ranked Niners, and 5th ranked Steelers.
For those of you who still aren't familiar with SCOAR...
SCOAR (SCaled Opponent-Adjusted point Ratio) is explained in detail here, but I'll provide a quick recap. Opponent-adjusted point ratio is the ratio of a team's points to the average points of that team's opponents, normalized with a logarithm. This value is calculated for a team's points for and points allowed then combined for a total rating. These results are then scaled using the average points scored across the league in order to give a result that corresponds directly to points.
Looking Back
SCOAR did well in its predictions last week, going 11-3 straight up while managing an 8-4-2 record against the spread. This brings the season totals to 79-40 (0.664) straight up and 53-54-9 (0.495) ATS. It was nice to see a respectable showing against the spread this week, after a rough stretch that dropped the season total below 0.500. SCOAR was within a single point on the Cardinals/Browns and Ravens/Chargers predictions.
| Game | Predicted | Actual | Game | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | 20 | 7 | Detroit Lions | 21 | 10 | |
| New England Patriots | 36 | 36 | Kansas City Chiefs | 29 | 45 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 20 | 23 | Arizona Cardinals | 33 | 34 | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 35 | 20 | Cleveland Browns | 20 | 20 | |
| San Francisco 49ers | 10 | 6 | New York Giants | 24 | 49 | |
| St. Louis Rams | 22 | 27 | New Orleans Saints | 25 | 52 | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 24 | 23 | San Diego Chargers | 26 | 26 | |
| Chicago Bears | 17 | 20 | Baltimore Ravens | 30 | 29 | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 22 | 16 | Tennessee Titans | 22 | 6 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 21 | 10 | Houston Texans | 23 | 20 | |
| New York Jets | 26 | 20 | Seattle Seahawks | 22 | 13 | |
| Oakland Raiders | 18 | 34 | Dallas Cowboys | 17 | 12 | |
| Green Bay Packers | 19 | 10 | Indianapolis Colts | 14 | 26 | |
| Denver Broncos | 19 | 29 | Carolina Panthers | 28 | 29 |
Highs & Lows
- Week 8 Best Single Game SCOAR – New England Patriots: 46.64
- Week 8 Worst Single Game SCOAR – San Francisco 49ers: -41.34
- Season Best Single Game SCOAR – Seattle Seahawks: 68.36 (week 3)
- Season Worst Single Game SCOAR – Chicago Bears: -72.80 (week 3)
On to the Numbers!
The top spot still belongs to the Patriots (12.77), who have given SCOAR no reason to question their early season supremacy. They are followed by two more undefeated teams, with the Bengals (9.62) coming in at 2nd and the Broncos (8.18) moving into third after an impressive win over the Packers. Fourth place still belongs to the Cardinals (7.43) while the Steelers move into the top five with a SCOAR of 5.94. The Seahawks dropped a spot after a close win over the Cowboys, putting them in 11th.
| Team | W | L | SOS | O-SCOAR | O Rank | D-SCOAR | D Rank | SCOAR | Last Week | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New England Patriots | 7 | 0 | -0.14 | 9.30 | 1 | -3.47 | 10 | 12.77 | 1 | - |
| 2 | Cincinnati Bengals | 7 | 0 | 1.06 | 4.50 | 3 | -5.13 | 4 | 9.62 | 3 | 1 |
| 3 | Denver Broncos | 7 | 0 | -1.08 | 0.02 | 15 | -8.15 | 1 | 8.18 | 9 | 6 |
| 4 | Arizona Cardinals | 6 | 2 | -2.87 | 5.85 | 2 | -1.58 | 13 | 7.43 | 4 | - |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 4 | 4 | 2.30 | -1.42 | 19 | -7.36 | 2 | 5.94 | 8 | 3 |
| 6 | New York Jets | 4 | 3 | 1.02 | 1.05 | 14 | -4.61 | 7 | 5.66 | 2 | (4) |
| 7 | Carolina Panthers | 7 | 0 | -1.95 | 2.00 | 8 | -3.49 | 9 | 5.50 | 6 | (1) |
| 8 | Green Bay Packers | 6 | 1 | -0.80 | 2.35 | 7 | -2.70 | 11 | 5.06 | 5 | (3) |
| 9 | Philadelphia Eagles | 3 | 4 | 1.07 | -0.65 | 16 | -5.31 | 3 | 4.66 | 7 | (2) |
| 10 | St. Louis Rams | 4 | 3 | 0.55 | -2.52 | 25 | -5.06 | 5 | 2.54 | 13 | 3 |
| 11 | Seattle Seahawks | 4 | 4 | -0.68 | -2.33 | 24 | -4.66 | 6 | 2.33 | 10 | (1) |
| 12 | Atlanta Falcons | 6 | 2 | -2.54 | 1.47 | 10 | -0.84 | 14 | 2.31 | 11 | (1) |
| 13 | Kansas City Chiefs | 3 | 5 | 0.92 | 2.61 | 5 | 0.33 | 17 | 2.28 | 15 | 2 |
| 14 | Buffalo Bills | 3 | 4 | 0.15 | 1.33 | 12 | -0.02 | 16 | 1.35 | 12 | (2) |
| 15 | Oakland Raiders | 4 | 3 | 1.20 | 1.68 | 9 | 1.05 | 21 | 0.63 | 23 | 8 |
| 16 | New Orleans Saints | 4 | 4 | 0.92 | 3.40 | 4 | 3.61 | 26 | -0.21 | 18 | 2 |
| 17 | Baltimore Ravens | 2 | 6 | 1.62 | 1.47 | 11 | 2.77 | 24 | -1.30 | 20 | 3 |
| 18 | Minnesota Vikings | 5 | 2 | -4.04 | -5.13 | 30 | -3.73 | 8 | -1.40 | 16 | (2) |
| 19 | New York Giants | 4 | 4 | -1.15 | 2.40 | 6 | 4.15 | 28 | -1.75 | 17 | (2) |
| 20 | Washington Redskins | 3 | 4 | 0.70 | -1.54 | 20 | 0.35 | 18 | -1.89 | 19 | (1) |
| 21 | Dallas Cowboys | 2 | 5 | 2.62 | -4.15 | 29 | -2.00 | 12 | -2.14 | 22 | 1 |
| 22 | Miami Dolphins | 3 | 4 | -0.25 | -1.68 | 21 | 0.82 | 20 | -2.49 | 14 | (8) |
| 23 | Indianapolis Colts | 3 | 5 | 0.68 | -2.21 | 23 | 0.37 | 19 | -2.59 | 24 | 1 |
| 24 | San Diego Chargers | 2 | 6 | 0.71 | 1.10 | 13 | 4.92 | 31 | -3.82 | 21 | (3) |
| 25 | Cleveland Browns | 2 | 6 | 1.43 | -1.14 | 17 | 2.80 | 25 | -3.94 | 26 | 1 |
| 26 | Houston Texans | 3 | 5 | -1.95 | -2.61 | 26 | 2.52 | 23 | -5.13 | 28 | 2 |
| 27 | Chicago Bears | 2 | 5 | 1.06 | -1.72 | 22 | 4.29 | 29 | -6.01 | 30 | 3 |
| 28 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3 | 4 | -1.99 | -1.28 | 18 | 4.75 | 30 | -6.03 | 32 | 4 |
| 29 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 2 | 5 | 0.48 | -3.01 | 28 | 3.68 | 27 | -6.69 | 29 | - |
| 30 | Tennessee Titans | 1 | 6 | -2.36 | -8.18 | 31 | -0.33 | 15 | -7.85 | 25 | (5) |
| 31 | Detroit Lions | 1 | 7 | 0.95 | -2.73 | 27 | 6.17 | 32 | -8.90 | 27 | (4) |
| 32 | San Francisco 49ers | 2 | 6 | 2.36 | -9.18 | 32 | 1.93 | 22 | -11.11 | 31 | (1) |
Notable Rankings
- Biggest Climb - Raiders, moving up 8 spots to #15
- Deepest Fall - Dolphins, dropping 8 spots to #22
- Highest Loser - Eagles at #9
- Lowest Winner - Vikings at #18
- Most Neutral – Saints (#16) with a SCOAR of -0.21
Week 9 SCOAR predictions
I do not recommend using these for betting purposes (although you're more than welcome to send me money if they help you).
A reminder that SCOAR doesn't know what a normal football score looks like, so it's bound to put up some very unlikely point totals.
| Cleveland Browns | 15 | Green Bay Packers | 20 | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 33 | Carolina Panthers | 24 | |
| Washington Redskins | 16 | Tennessee Titans | 20 | |
| New England Patriots | 36 | New Orleans Saints | 28 | |
| Miami Dolphins | 21 | St. Louis Rams | 14 | |
| Buffalo Bills | 28 | Minnesota Vikings | 16 | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 15 | Oakland Raiders | 18 | |
| New York Jets | 31 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 24 | |
| New York Giants | 30 | Atlanta Falcons | 26 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 28 | San Francisco 49ers | 14 | |
| Denver Broncos | 23 | Philadelphia Eagles | 21 | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 15 | Dallas Cowboys | 16 | |
| Chicago Bears | 24 | |||
| San Diego Chargers | 31 |