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SCOAR: Week 9 Rankings & Predictions

Patriots distance themselves from the pack, Seahawks suffer a slight fall after unimpressive win.

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Seattle squeaked by the Cowboys, holding Dallas to field goals while scoring just enough to take home the W. The lackluster performance earned a rare negative SCOAR in a victory and contributed to a one position drop in the rankings. The Seahawks have a chance to rest up on their off week before a three game home stretch against the 4th ranked Cardinals, 32nd ranked Niners, and 5th ranked Steelers.

For those of you who still aren't familiar with SCOAR...

SCOAR (SCaled Opponent-Adjusted point Ratio) is explained in detail here, but I'll provide a quick recap. Opponent-adjusted point ratio is the ratio of a team's points to the average points of that team's opponents, normalized with a logarithm. This value is calculated for a team's points for and points allowed then combined for a total rating. These results are then scaled using the average points scored across the league in order to give a result that corresponds directly to points.

Looking Back

SCOAR did well in its predictions last week, going 11-3 straight up while managing an 8-4-2 record against the spread. This brings the season totals to 79-40 (0.664) straight up and 53-54-9 (0.495) ATS. It was nice to see a respectable showing against the spread this week, after a rough stretch that dropped the season total below 0.500. SCOAR was within a single point on the Cardinals/Browns and Ravens/Chargers predictions.

Game Predicted Actual Game Predicted Actual
Miami Dolphins 20 7 Detroit Lions 21 10
New England Patriots 36 36 Kansas City Chiefs 29 45
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 23 Arizona Cardinals 33 34
Atlanta Falcons 35 20 Cleveland Browns 20 20
San Francisco 49ers 10 6 New York Giants 24 49
St. Louis Rams 22 27 New Orleans Saints 25 52
Minnesota Vikings 24 23 San Diego Chargers 26 26
Chicago Bears 17 20 Baltimore Ravens 30 29
Cincinnati Bengals 22 16 Tennessee Titans 22 6
Pittsburgh Steelers 21 10 Houston Texans 23 20
New York Jets 26 20 Seattle Seahawks 22 13
Oakland Raiders 18 34 Dallas Cowboys 17 12
Green Bay Packers 19 10 Indianapolis Colts 14 26
Denver Broncos 19 29 Carolina Panthers 28 29

Highs & Lows

  • Week 8 Best Single Game SCOAR – New England Patriots: 46.64
  • Week 8 Worst Single Game SCOAR – San Francisco 49ers: -41.34
  • Season Best Single Game SCOAR – Seattle Seahawks: 68.36 (week 3)
  • Season Worst Single Game SCOAR – Chicago Bears: -72.80 (week 3)

On to the Numbers!

The top spot still belongs to the Patriots (12.77), who have given SCOAR no reason to question their early season supremacy. They are followed by two more undefeated teams, with the Bengals (9.62) coming in at 2nd and the Broncos (8.18) moving into third after an impressive win over the Packers. Fourth place still belongs to the Cardinals (7.43) while the Steelers move into the top five with a SCOAR of 5.94. The Seahawks dropped a spot after a close win over the Cowboys, putting them in 11th.

Team W L SOS O-SCOAR O Rank D-SCOAR D Rank SCOAR Last Week Change
1 New England Patriots 7 0 -0.14 9.30 1 -3.47 10 12.77 1 -
2 Cincinnati Bengals 7 0 1.06 4.50 3 -5.13 4 9.62 3 1
3 Denver Broncos 7 0 -1.08 0.02 15 -8.15 1 8.18 9 6
4 Arizona Cardinals 6 2 -2.87 5.85 2 -1.58 13 7.43 4 -
5 Pittsburgh Steelers 4 4 2.30 -1.42 19 -7.36 2 5.94 8 3
6 New York Jets 4 3 1.02 1.05 14 -4.61 7 5.66 2 (4)
7 Carolina Panthers 7 0 -1.95 2.00 8 -3.49 9 5.50 6 (1)
8 Green Bay Packers 6 1 -0.80 2.35 7 -2.70 11 5.06 5 (3)
9 Philadelphia Eagles 3 4 1.07 -0.65 16 -5.31 3 4.66 7 (2)
10 St. Louis Rams 4 3 0.55 -2.52 25 -5.06 5 2.54 13 3
11 Seattle Seahawks 4 4 -0.68 -2.33 24 -4.66 6 2.33 10 (1)
12 Atlanta Falcons 6 2 -2.54 1.47 10 -0.84 14 2.31 11 (1)
13 Kansas City Chiefs 3 5 0.92 2.61 5 0.33 17 2.28 15 2
14 Buffalo Bills 3 4 0.15 1.33 12 -0.02 16 1.35 12 (2)
15 Oakland Raiders 4 3 1.20 1.68 9 1.05 21 0.63 23 8
16 New Orleans Saints 4 4 0.92 3.40 4 3.61 26 -0.21 18 2
17 Baltimore Ravens 2 6 1.62 1.47 11 2.77 24 -1.30 20 3
18 Minnesota Vikings 5 2 -4.04 -5.13 30 -3.73 8 -1.40 16 (2)
19 New York Giants 4 4 -1.15 2.40 6 4.15 28 -1.75 17 (2)
20 Washington Redskins 3 4 0.70 -1.54 20 0.35 18 -1.89 19 (1)
21 Dallas Cowboys 2 5 2.62 -4.15 29 -2.00 12 -2.14 22 1
22 Miami Dolphins 3 4 -0.25 -1.68 21 0.82 20 -2.49 14 (8)
23 Indianapolis Colts 3 5 0.68 -2.21 23 0.37 19 -2.59 24 1
24 San Diego Chargers 2 6 0.71 1.10 13 4.92 31 -3.82 21 (3)
25 Cleveland Browns 2 6 1.43 -1.14 17 2.80 25 -3.94 26 1
26 Houston Texans 3 5 -1.95 -2.61 26 2.52 23 -5.13 28 2
27 Chicago Bears 2 5 1.06 -1.72 22 4.29 29 -6.01 30 3
28 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 4 -1.99 -1.28 18 4.75 30 -6.03 32 4
29 Jacksonville Jaguars 2 5 0.48 -3.01 28 3.68 27 -6.69 29 -
30 Tennessee Titans 1 6 -2.36 -8.18 31 -0.33 15 -7.85 25 (5)
31 Detroit Lions 1 7 0.95 -2.73 27 6.17 32 -8.90 27 (4)
32 San Francisco 49ers 2 6 2.36 -9.18 32 1.93 22 -11.11 31 (1)

Notable Rankings

  • Biggest Climb - Raiders, moving up 8 spots to #15
  • Deepest Fall - Dolphins, dropping 8 spots to #22
  • Highest Loser - Eagles at #9
  • Lowest Winner - Vikings at #18
  • Most Neutral – Saints (#16) with a SCOAR of -0.21

Week 9 SCOAR predictions

I do not recommend using these for betting purposes (although you're more than welcome to send me money if they help you).

A reminder that SCOAR doesn't know what a normal football score looks like, so it's bound to put up some very unlikely point totals.

Cleveland Browns 15 Green Bay Packers 20
Cincinnati Bengals 33 Carolina Panthers 24
Washington Redskins 16 Tennessee Titans 20
New England Patriots 36 New Orleans Saints 28
Miami Dolphins 21 St. Louis Rams 14
Buffalo Bills 28 Minnesota Vikings 16
Jacksonville Jaguars 15 Oakland Raiders 18
New York Jets 31 Pittsburgh Steelers 24
New York Giants 30 Atlanta Falcons 26
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 San Francisco 49ers 14
Denver Broncos 23 Philadelphia Eagles 21
Indianapolis Colts 15 Dallas Cowboys 16
Chicago Bears 24
San Diego Chargers 31