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Your Seahawky Predictions From 2014: Envelope Please

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Whatever an "envelope" is. Somebody check the history books. Whatever a "book" is.

happier times
happier times
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

You are the star of this post.

You created the content, back in September, just before the Hawks beat the Packers for the next-to-last time. Sometimes just minutes before! (Like hawkster, whose predictions came in 11 minutes before Week 1's kickoff.)

So now your adventures in fortune-telling conclude; those baby predictions are coming home to hatch roost cry out like the proud Hawks they are.

Twelve categories were up for grabs. Time to honor/mock the winners.

A) NFC West Final Standings

To refresh your ailing memory, the final NFCW standings were:

Hawks 12-4

Cardinals 11-5

Niners 8-8

Rams 6-10

Username Why? What's so special about them?
Co-winners

99-percent-sure

DukeAndDuke

DesertSeahawk

Each user had all four NFCW teams in the right order and was off by a total of four wins between all teams combined.
Co-runners-up

garcmall

Andrew E

seatownfan

Each user had all four NFCW teams in the right order and was off by a total of five wins between all teams combined.
Honorable mention

Silentpadna

EastHawk

Chronifused

Notorious G.O.B.

Game 0f Drones

Travis Williams

Drunk Viking

Each user had all four NFCW teams in the right order and was off by more than five wins or did not provide a final record.

B) NFC playoff seeding

One undisputed champion, two runners-up, and five honorable mentions this time.

Username Why? What's so special about them?
Champion Drunk Viking Only user to get five NFC playoff teams right
Co-runners-up

FollowingTheseLosersSince1977

Matthew Mullen

Got four NFC playoff teams right and three in the right seeding
Honorable mention

Travis Williams

99-percent-sure

Rochawk

Got four NFC playoff teams right but fewer than three in the right seeding

Not one single FG predictor nailed all six NFC teams. That's because almost everyone forecasted the Saints and Eagles to make the playoffs, and almost nobody picked the Cowboys. More on that in the composite section later.

Bit of trivia: Drunk Viking's comment begins with "I hope I'm wrong." Probably because he/she later picked the Hawks to fall short of a championship.

Hmmm.

Totally pre-banned from next year's contest, DV.

C) AFC playoff seeding

One champion, one runner-up, and dozens of honorable mentions.

Reminder: NE, Denver, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Cincinnati and Baltimore reached the postseason.

Champ: Wilder., with all six teams right and three in the right position.

Runner-up: J.L. White, with all six teams right and two in the right position.

Honorable mentions: About 30 users. So many of you picked NE, Den, Ind, Cin, Pit and someone else. The AFC wasn't exactly a mystery this year. So your name doesn't make it here. Seriously, think outside the box juuuuuuust a little more next year.

D) How the Hawks' season will end

The unfortunate champion in this case is one solitary user, FollowingTheseLosersSince1977, who called the Super Bowl loss and is no doubt very proud of his achievement, which should give him great comfort while we stone him. /hands out big frickin' heavy rocks that will hurt

E) and F) Receiving leaders

These questions asked you to identify which receiver would lead the team in catches, then in yards. Doug Baldwin ended up being the answer to both questions. Many users got E) or F) right, but just a few got both answers correct. It was these guys, listed from earliest submission to latest:

Rynozo; EastHawk; stwood8; William & Polly; KickHisAssSEABass; Paratroopa; Superb Owl; John Fraley (you demand a recount!); Wade8813; Cashews!; apsve; billy ho; Silentpadna.

G) Marshawn Lynch's rushing yards and YPC

Chart time again!

Lynch's yards Lynch's YPC
Actual 1306 4.7
Champion(s) Rochawk, 1305

Notorious G.O.B., 4.7

FeartheLOB, 4.7

Runner(s)-up Stephen_D, 1300

99-percent-sure, 4.6

EastHawk, 4.6

H) How many punt returns for Earl, with how many TD's?

Props to anyone who thought the experiment would be brief.

Earl's punt returns and TD
Actual 2 and 0
Champion plushhandicap, 5 and 0
Runner-up FollowingTheseLosersSince1977, 6 and 0

Maybe this season, then, Earl?

I) Percy's KO return average, with how many TD's?

Looks like H's brevity repeated itself huh.

User AaronBean was by far the closest to Percy's actual average of 23.6 -- he guessed 24.3 and is your champion here.

Several users tied for the TD category. Percy had zero, because Percy, but these users all came closest by predicting just one: johnnycougar; Silentpadna; Drunk Viking (hi again); hawkster; Game 0f Drones; Paratroopa; Superb Owl; Wade8813.

J) K) L) The Russell Wilson Section

You fools were asked to predict RW's:

  • Passer rating over or under 104
  • TD-INT ratio (not raw numbers)
  • Total passing yards
  • Y/A
  • Total rushing yards
  • ANY/A

This demands a final Chart Of Doom.

Actual Champion(s) Runner(s)-up
Rating > 104? Under Eight users, listed below Everyone else
TD-INT ratio 20-7, 2.86 thebluefox, 2.82 Paratroopa, 2.91
Passing Yards 3475 Silentpadna, 3480 John Fraley, 3493
Yards/Attempt 7.9 Drunk Viking, 7.9 Five users, listed below
Rushing Yards 849 thebluefox, 679 smb282, 660
ANY/A 6.72 :( 99-percent-sure, 6.98 Stephen_D, 7.00

In the rating category, the champions being rewarded for pessimism/realism were: Rynozo, Paratroopa, room13, Superb Owl, seatownfan12, johnnycougar, Drunk Viking and hawkster.

In the Y/A category, the five runners-up are room13, Superb Owl, RW3_4MVP, Imronburgandy? and rsampler.

First Annual NostraHawkus Award

Winner: one name appears five times. Drunk Viking is your 2015 NostraHawkus. The award is his or hers until February 2016. Congrats! Have a drink to celebrate maybe?

Runners-up, with four mentions apiece: Paratroopa, Silentpadna and 99-percent-sure.

Honorable mentions, with three mentions apiece: EastHawk, Superb Owl and the late FollowingTheseLosersSince1977.

Composite Section

This is where we test you collectively. How well did you guys predict the standings, plus Marshawn's and Russell's final numbers? I compiled all the predictions for each of those categories. Field Gulls projected the following:

NFC West Standings

(4-3-2-1 point system, most points wins)

1. Seattle 224

2. San Francisco 160

3. Arizona 123

4. St. Louis 76

Not bad. Not great, but not bad. Special props to DesertSeahawk, whose prediction of an 8-8 season for the Niners included the comment of "bye jimmy."

NFC Playoff Seeding

(6-5-4-3-2-1 system, most points wins)

Seed, Team Points earned % of total ballots % of times got bye % of times won div.
1, Seattle 340 100 96 96
2, New Orleans 269 100 (yes, 100) 61 96
3, Green Bay 246 98 32 92
4, Philadelphia 187 96 5 93
5, San Francisco 60 54 4 4
6, Chicago 49 49 0 7
7, Detroit 21 22 0 2
8, Arizona 19 24 0 0
9, Carolina 19 19 0 0
10, Tampa Bay 15 14 2 2
11, New York 10 7 0 5
12, Atlanta 9 12 0 2
13, Dallas 3 2 0 2
14, St. Louis 1 2 0 0
15, Minnesota 0 0 0 0
16. Washington 0 0 0 0

Some things stand out.

  • You got four of the teams wrong, you guys. Parity.
  • Every last one of you put the Saints in the playoffs and 96 percent of you picked the Eagles to join them.
  • In your collective defense, the Eagles and Niners were both in a playoff position until the Hawks showed up on their schedule.
  • 14 users went with the Sea-NO-GB-Phi-SF-Chi combo in some order, by far the most common permutation.
  • Only one user left off the last half of those six teams and picked the Cowboys instead to take the NFC East. That was, well, Drunk Viking.
  • The Bucs appeared on 14 percent of playoff ballots. Yes, the team from Tampa.
  • Only five of you selected the Cards-Lions postseason parlay.
  • Haha Vikings and Skins.

Medians With The Stars

Our final table, which displays final numbers for Lynch and Wilson alongside your predictions.

Category Actual result FG median prediction Variance
Lynch rushing yards 1306 1202 8.0% too pessimistic
Lynch YPC 4.7 4.45 5.3% too pessimistic
Wilson passing TD 20 31.5 57.5% too optimistic
Wilson INT 7 8 14.3% too pessimistic
Wilson passing yards 3475 3700 6.5% too optimistic
Wilson Y/A 7.9 8.55 8.2% too optimistic

I used the median here to diminish the power of outliers.

That's it. See you all and your crystal balls again after preseason ends, so in about six century-months.