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SCOAR: Week 3 Rankings and Predictions

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The shakeup continues with a new team on top and the former number 1 falling to eighth.

Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports

Another wild week in the NFL. This season has seemed particularly crazy so far, with 3 of the last 4 Super Bowl winners starting 0-2 while perennial bottom dwellers like the Raiders and Jags have already ruined their chances of joining the 2008 Lions in the 0-16 club. The Seahawks remain propped up by the three remaining 2014 weeks in the formula, keeping SCOAR from over(hopefully)reacting to the poor start to the season. They look to get back on track the next two weeks, facing the 32nd ranked Bears and the 24th ranked Lions.

For those of you who still aren't familiar with SCOAR...

SCOAR (SCaled Opponent-Adjusted point Ratio) is explained in detail here, but I'll provide a quick recap. Opponent-adjusted point ratio is the ratio of a team's points to the average points of that team's opponents, normalized with a logarithm. This value is calculated for a team's points for and points allowed then combined for a total rating. These results are then scaled using the average points scored across the league in order to give a result that corresponds directly to points.

Looking Back

SCOAR had more success with its Week 2 predictions, going 8-8 straight up and 10-6 (0.625) against the spread. This brings the season total to 17-15 (0.531) in both straight up and ATS predictions. Hopefully these numbers will continue to improve as the season progresses.

Highs & Lows

  • Week 2 Best Single Game SCOAR – New York Jets: 24.82
  • Week 2 Worst Single Game SCOAR – St. Louis Rams: -26.76
  • Season Best Single Game SCOAR – San Francisco 49ers: 41.52 (week 1)
  • Season Worst Single Game SCOAR – Minnesota Vikings: -46.71 (week 1)

On to the Numbers!

With another disappointing loss, the Seahawks fell from king of the hill all the way down to #8, with a SCOAR of 6.65. The top spot now belongs to the Cowboys (SCOAR doesn’t know/care about the losses of Dez and Romo) with a rating of 11.15. The Steelers come in at a very close 2nd, only 0.02 out of first. Third place belongs to the Patriots (10.46). All three teams have a double digit SCOAR, typically the mark of an elite team, although I’d recommend waiting for a little bit more of the season to pass before giving that label to these teams. Rounding out the top 5 we have the Bengals (8.77) and the Panthers (8.55).

Team W L O-SCOAR O Rank D-SCOAR D Rank SCOAR Rank Last Week Change
1 Dallas Cowboys 2 0 6.71 1 -4.44 8 11.15 1 5 4
2 Pittsburgh Steelers 1 1 6.37 2 -4.76 6 11.13 2 2 -
3 New England Patriots 2 0 5.89 3 -4.57 7 10.46 3 4 1
4 Cincinnati Bengals 2 0 3.47 5 -5.31 4 8.77 4 9 5
5 Carolina Panthers 2 0 0.84 15 -7.71 1 8.55 5 3 -2
6 Denver Broncos 2 0 5.24 4 -3.01 10 8.25 6 6 -
7 New York Jets 2 0 1.04 13 -6.65 2 7.69 7 14 7
8 Seattle Seahawks 0 2 1.78 9 -4.87 5 6.65 8 1 -7
9 Green Bay Packers 2 0 1.47 11 -3.98 9 5.46 9 13 4
10 Kansas City Chiefs 1 1 -0.82 19 -5.63 3 4.81 10 10 -
11 Buffalo Bills 1 1 1.71 10 -2.25 11 3.96 11 7 -4
12 Philadelphia Eagles 0 2 2.23 8 0.52 19 1.71 12 16 4
13 New York Giants 0 2 2.73 7 2.10 25 0.63 13 8 -5
14 Houston Texans 0 2 0.78 16 0.45 18 0.32 14 12 -2
15 San Diego Chargers 1 1 1.00 14 1.36 23 -0.37 15 17 2
16 Atlanta Falcons 2 0 -0.95 20 -0.54 15 -0.41 16 18 2
17 San Francisco 49ers 1 1 -0.17 17 0.74 20 -0.91 17 21 4
18 Arizona Cardinals 2 0 -0.63 18 0.95 21 -1.58 18 19 1
19 Indianapolis Colts 0 2 -5.39 29 -1.97 12 -3.42 19 23 4
20 Jacksonville Jaguars 1 1 -4.81 28 -1.28 13 -3.53 20 22 2
21 Miami Dolphins 1 1 3.10 6 7.38 32 -4.29 21 27 6
22 Baltimore Ravens 0 2 -3.14 24 1.17 22 -4.31 22 15 -7
23 Oakland Raiders 1 1 1.47 12 6.54 31 -5.07 23 25 2
24 Detroit Lions 0 2 -2.10 21 3.66 27 -5.76 24 20 -4
25 St. Louis Rams 1 1 -4.33 25 1.52 24 -5.85 25 11 -14
26 Washington Redskins 1 1 -6.67 30 -0.78 14 -5.89 26 32 6
27 Cleveland Browns 1 1 -7.12 31 -0.15 17 -6.97 27 30 3
28 Minnesota Vikings 1 1 -7.43 32 -0.22 16 -7.21 28 24 -4
29 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1 1 -4.53 26 2.95 26 -7.47 29 31 2
30 Tennessee Titans 1 1 -2.66 22 5.31 28 -7.97 30 28 -2
31 New Orleans Saints 0 2 -3.08 23 6.06 29 -9.14 31 29 -2
32 Chicago Bears 0 2 -4.79 27 6.41 30 -11.20 32 26 -6

Notable Rankings

  • Biggest Climb - Jets, moving up 7 spots to #7
  • Deepest Fall - Rams, dropping 14 spots to #25
  • Highest Loser - Seahawks at #8
  • Lowest Winner - Cardinals at #18
  • Most Neutral - Texans (#14) with a SCOAR of 0.32

Week 3 SCOAR predictions

I do not recommend using these for betting purposes (although you're more than welcome to send me money if they help you).

A reminder that SCOAR doesn't know what a normal football score looks like, so it's bound to put up some very unlikely point totals.

Washington Redskins 18 Atlanta Falcons 15
New York Giants 28 Dallas Cowboys 34
Indianapolis Colts 16 Oakland Raiders 21
Tennessee Titans 19 Cleveland Browns 24
Cincinnati Bengals 25 Jacksonville Jaguars 12
Baltimore Ravens 16 New England Patriots 27
New Orleans Saints 10 Philadelphia Eagles 15
Carolina Panthers 29 New York Jets 28
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 San Diego Chargers 19
Houston Texans 25 Minnesota Vikings 20
Pittsburgh Steelers 29 San Francisco 49ers 19
St. Louis Rams 15 Arizona Cardinals 25
Buffalo Bills 30 Chicago Bears 10
Miami Dolphins 23 Seattle Seahawks 32
Denver Broncos 29 Kansas City Chiefs 16
Detroit Lions 19 Green Bay Packers 21