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Another wild week in the NFL. This season has seemed particularly crazy so far, with 3 of the last 4 Super Bowl winners starting 0-2 while perennial bottom dwellers like the Raiders and Jags have already ruined their chances of joining the 2008 Lions in the 0-16 club. The Seahawks remain propped up by the three remaining 2014 weeks in the formula, keeping SCOAR from over(hopefully)reacting to the poor start to the season. They look to get back on track the next two weeks, facing the 32nd ranked Bears and the 24th ranked Lions.
For those of you who still aren't familiar with SCOAR...
SCOAR (SCaled Opponent-Adjusted point Ratio) is explained in detail here, but I'll provide a quick recap. Opponent-adjusted point ratio is the ratio of a team's points to the average points of that team's opponents, normalized with a logarithm. This value is calculated for a team's points for and points allowed then combined for a total rating. These results are then scaled using the average points scored across the league in order to give a result that corresponds directly to points.
Looking Back
SCOAR had more success with its Week 2 predictions, going 8-8 straight up and 10-6 (0.625) against the spread. This brings the season total to 17-15 (0.531) in both straight up and ATS predictions. Hopefully these numbers will continue to improve as the season progresses.
Highs & Lows
- Week 2 Best Single Game SCOAR – New York Jets: 24.82
- Week 2 Worst Single Game SCOAR – St. Louis Rams: -26.76
- Season Best Single Game SCOAR – San Francisco 49ers: 41.52 (week 1)
- Season Worst Single Game SCOAR – Minnesota Vikings: -46.71 (week 1)
On to the Numbers!
With another disappointing loss, the Seahawks fell from king of the hill all the way down to #8, with a SCOAR of 6.65. The top spot now belongs to the Cowboys (SCOAR doesn’t know/care about the losses of Dez and Romo) with a rating of 11.15. The Steelers come in at a very close 2nd, only 0.02 out of first. Third place belongs to the Patriots (10.46). All three teams have a double digit SCOAR, typically the mark of an elite team, although I’d recommend waiting for a little bit more of the season to pass before giving that label to these teams. Rounding out the top 5 we have the Bengals (8.77) and the Panthers (8.55).
| Team | W | L | O-SCOAR | O Rank | D-SCOAR | D Rank | SCOAR | Rank | Last Week | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dallas Cowboys | 2 | 0 | 6.71 | 1 | -4.44 | 8 | 11.15 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 2 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1 | 1 | 6.37 | 2 | -4.76 | 6 | 11.13 | 2 | 2 | - |
| 3 | New England Patriots | 2 | 0 | 5.89 | 3 | -4.57 | 7 | 10.46 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 4 | Cincinnati Bengals | 2 | 0 | 3.47 | 5 | -5.31 | 4 | 8.77 | 4 | 9 | 5 |
| 5 | Carolina Panthers | 2 | 0 | 0.84 | 15 | -7.71 | 1 | 8.55 | 5 | 3 | -2 |
| 6 | Denver Broncos | 2 | 0 | 5.24 | 4 | -3.01 | 10 | 8.25 | 6 | 6 | - |
| 7 | New York Jets | 2 | 0 | 1.04 | 13 | -6.65 | 2 | 7.69 | 7 | 14 | 7 |
| 8 | Seattle Seahawks | 0 | 2 | 1.78 | 9 | -4.87 | 5 | 6.65 | 8 | 1 | -7 |
| 9 | Green Bay Packers | 2 | 0 | 1.47 | 11 | -3.98 | 9 | 5.46 | 9 | 13 | 4 |
| 10 | Kansas City Chiefs | 1 | 1 | -0.82 | 19 | -5.63 | 3 | 4.81 | 10 | 10 | - |
| 11 | Buffalo Bills | 1 | 1 | 1.71 | 10 | -2.25 | 11 | 3.96 | 11 | 7 | -4 |
| 12 | Philadelphia Eagles | 0 | 2 | 2.23 | 8 | 0.52 | 19 | 1.71 | 12 | 16 | 4 |
| 13 | New York Giants | 0 | 2 | 2.73 | 7 | 2.10 | 25 | 0.63 | 13 | 8 | -5 |
| 14 | Houston Texans | 0 | 2 | 0.78 | 16 | 0.45 | 18 | 0.32 | 14 | 12 | -2 |
| 15 | San Diego Chargers | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | 14 | 1.36 | 23 | -0.37 | 15 | 17 | 2 |
| 16 | Atlanta Falcons | 2 | 0 | -0.95 | 20 | -0.54 | 15 | -0.41 | 16 | 18 | 2 |
| 17 | San Francisco 49ers | 1 | 1 | -0.17 | 17 | 0.74 | 20 | -0.91 | 17 | 21 | 4 |
| 18 | Arizona Cardinals | 2 | 0 | -0.63 | 18 | 0.95 | 21 | -1.58 | 18 | 19 | 1 |
| 19 | Indianapolis Colts | 0 | 2 | -5.39 | 29 | -1.97 | 12 | -3.42 | 19 | 23 | 4 |
| 20 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 1 | 1 | -4.81 | 28 | -1.28 | 13 | -3.53 | 20 | 22 | 2 |
| 21 | Miami Dolphins | 1 | 1 | 3.10 | 6 | 7.38 | 32 | -4.29 | 21 | 27 | 6 |
| 22 | Baltimore Ravens | 0 | 2 | -3.14 | 24 | 1.17 | 22 | -4.31 | 22 | 15 | -7 |
| 23 | Oakland Raiders | 1 | 1 | 1.47 | 12 | 6.54 | 31 | -5.07 | 23 | 25 | 2 |
| 24 | Detroit Lions | 0 | 2 | -2.10 | 21 | 3.66 | 27 | -5.76 | 24 | 20 | -4 |
| 25 | St. Louis Rams | 1 | 1 | -4.33 | 25 | 1.52 | 24 | -5.85 | 25 | 11 | -14 |
| 26 | Washington Redskins | 1 | 1 | -6.67 | 30 | -0.78 | 14 | -5.89 | 26 | 32 | 6 |
| 27 | Cleveland Browns | 1 | 1 | -7.12 | 31 | -0.15 | 17 | -6.97 | 27 | 30 | 3 |
| 28 | Minnesota Vikings | 1 | 1 | -7.43 | 32 | -0.22 | 16 | -7.21 | 28 | 24 | -4 |
| 29 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1 | 1 | -4.53 | 26 | 2.95 | 26 | -7.47 | 29 | 31 | 2 |
| 30 | Tennessee Titans | 1 | 1 | -2.66 | 22 | 5.31 | 28 | -7.97 | 30 | 28 | -2 |
| 31 | New Orleans Saints | 0 | 2 | -3.08 | 23 | 6.06 | 29 | -9.14 | 31 | 29 | -2 |
| 32 | Chicago Bears | 0 | 2 | -4.79 | 27 | 6.41 | 30 | -11.20 | 32 | 26 | -6 |
Notable Rankings
- Biggest Climb - Jets, moving up 7 spots to #7
- Deepest Fall - Rams, dropping 14 spots to #25
- Highest Loser - Seahawks at #8
- Lowest Winner - Cardinals at #18
- Most Neutral - Texans (#14) with a SCOAR of 0.32
Week 3 SCOAR predictions
I do not recommend using these for betting purposes (although you're more than welcome to send me money if they help you).
A reminder that SCOAR doesn't know what a normal football score looks like, so it's bound to put up some very unlikely point totals.
| Washington Redskins | 18 | Atlanta Falcons | 15 | |
| New York Giants | 28 | Dallas Cowboys | 34 | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 16 | Oakland Raiders | 21 | |
| Tennessee Titans | 19 | Cleveland Browns | 24 | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 25 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 12 | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 16 | New England Patriots | 27 | |
| New Orleans Saints | 10 | Philadelphia Eagles | 15 | |
| Carolina Panthers | 29 | New York Jets | 28 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 14 | San Diego Chargers | 19 | |
| Houston Texans | 25 | Minnesota Vikings | 20 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 29 | San Francisco 49ers | 19 | |
| St. Louis Rams | 15 | Arizona Cardinals | 25 | |
| Buffalo Bills | 30 | Chicago Bears | 10 | |
| Miami Dolphins | 23 | Seattle Seahawks | 32 | |
| Denver Broncos | 29 | Kansas City Chiefs | 16 | |
| Detroit Lions | 19 | Green Bay Packers | 21 |