Using recent history to predict a Seahawks win in Super Bowl LI

On February 5th, 2017, a Sunday, the Seattle Seahawks will hoist the Lombardi trophy at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas, after winning Super Bowl LI by a score of 34-18. This will be their fourth Super Bowl appearance, their third in four years, and the second time they’ve claimed the mantel of NFL Champion.

MVP: Russell Wilson with a stat line of 22 for 34 for 337 yards for a 65% completion rate, averaging 9.12 yards per attempt with three touchdowns and one interception.

How do they get there?

After finding their groove on offense in week 13 against the Carolina Panthers, the offense continues to choo-choo along while the defense stands tall for Earl Thomas, closing out the regular season with wins (34-10, 30-9, 26-15, and 26-9). They clinch the NFC West and a first round bye.

In the NFC Divisional round, the Hawks survive a nail biter, 27-23. In the NFC Conference championship, they hold on to win 26-10. Then they dominate and show the world that they are in deed the new NFL Dynasty.

In all seriousness, that doesn’t sound too farfetched to me (outside of three 26 point games in a four game span). So where did all these prophesies come from? Well they came from the history of Seattle Seahawks dominance in December and January in the Russell Wilson era.

Since 2012, from Week 14 on, including the playoffs, the Hawks have scored an average of 28 points, while only giving up 14, for a nice comfortable win margin of two touchdowns. Over these past four years, the Hawks lowest scoring output has been 10 points (vs Vikings in sub zero temperatures and against the Cardinals in a loss in Week 16 in 2013). Their largest scoring output has been 58 that kicked off Seattle’s own NFL tour back in 2012.

Over these past four years they have only lost three regular season games out of 16 (two in 2013, one in 2015). That’s an 81% win percentage in the warmup phase of the season for when the real regular season starts. The average margin of win is 24 points, while the average margin of loss is only five points. So they win more often than they lose, and when they do win, they win BIG. But when they lose, they lose small.

During that same time the Hawks have played 10 playoff games, posting a 7-3 record. The trend at the end of the regular season continues. Average margin of win in playoff wins is 11 points. Average margin of loss in playoffs is 4 points. The win margin is reduced due to the increased level of competition in the playoffs, but they continue to win by more points than they lose. A mark of a great, consistent team.

Take a look at the raw data.

So what’s your prophecy? Make sure to record it below, then bookmark the page and come back to check it after Super Bowl LI! Winner gets $12k Gull Bux!